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Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows

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We study the transmission of sovereign debt inflow shocks on domestic firms. We exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows in six emerging countries which are due to the announcements of these countries’ inclusion in two major local currency sovereign debt indexes. We show that these episodes significantly reduce government bond yields and appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous spillovers on domestic firms. Financial and government-related firms experience positive abnormal returns in the days following the announcement episodes. Instead, companies operating in tradable industries exhibit negative abnormal returns after the episodes. We find that the former expansionary effect is more pronounced in countries where the government bond yields drop more in response to the announcement, while the latter recessionary effect is larger in countries where the domestic currency appreciates more. Also, we find that firms which rely more on external financing are positively affected by these events. Our findings shed novel light on the channels through which sovereign debt inflows affect firms in recipient countries. They suggest that these inflows can contribute to reshaping the domestic economy, by increasing the importance of the non-tradable sector at the expenses of the tradable one.

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  • Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2020. "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows," CSEF Working Papers 562, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:562
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    1. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; capital inflows; exchange rate; government bond yields; stock prices; emerging markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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