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Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner
  • Alberto Martin
  • Lorenzo Pandolfi
  • Tomas Williams

Abstract

We study the transmission of sovereign debt inflow shocks on domestic firms. We exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows in six emerging countries that are due to the announcements of these countries' inclusion in two major local-currency sovereign debt indexes. We show that these episodes significantly reduce government bond yields and appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous stock market effects on domestic firms. Firms operating in tradable industries experience lower abnormal returns than firms in non-tradable industries. In addition, financial, government-related, and firms that rely more on external financing experience relatively higher abnormal returns. The effect on financial and government-related firms is stronger in countries that display larger reductions in government bond yields. The effect on tradable firms is stronger in countries where the domestic currency appreciates more. We provide a stylized model that rationalizes these results. Our findings shed novel light on the channels through which sovereign debt inflows affect firms in emerging economies.
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Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2020. "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14512
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    Cited by:

    1. Kwak, Jun Hee & Han, Bada & Lee, Jae Young, 2025. "The causal effects of equity flows: Evidence from Korea," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Bomprezzi, Pietro & Marchesi, Silvia, 2023. "A firm level approach on the effects of IMF programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Matteo Maggiori, 2021. "FX policy when financial markets are imperfect," BIS Working Papers 942, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Zhao, Panting & Yao, Xin & Shen, Rui, 2024. "Capital market internationalization and firms' ESG performance: Evidence from the inclusion of China A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Market Index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Lucas A. Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    8. Stein, Hillary, 2025. "Got milk? The effect of export price shocks on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Ding, Haoyuan & Jin, Yuying & Jin, Zeyang & Nie, Guangyu, 2024. "Winners and losers from financial sector openness: A Firm’s international exposure matters," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    10. Lucas Argentieri Mariani & Mattia Longhi & Silvia Marchesi, 2025. "Reversing the Political Resource Curse: Accountability and Regional Favoritism under Capital Windfalls," Working Papers 552, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    11. Aldunate, Felipe & Da, Zhi & Larrain, Borja & Sialm, Clemens, 2025. "Pension fund flows, exchange rates, and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2021. "An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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