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Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows

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  • Fernando Broner
  • Alberto Martin
  • Lorenzo Pandolfi
  • Tomas Williams

Abstract

We study the transmission of sovereign debt inflow shocks on domestic firms. We exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows in six emerging countries that are due to the announcements of these countries' inclusion in two major local-currency sovereign debt indexes. We show that these episodes significantly reduce government bond yields and appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous stock market effects on domestic firms. Firms operating in tradable industries experience lower abnormal returns than firms in non-tradable industries. In addition, financial, government-related, and firms that rely more on external financing experience relatively higher abnormal returns. The effect on financial and government-related firms is stronger in countries that display larger reductions in government bond yields. The effect on tradable firms is stronger in countries where the domestic currency appreciates more. We provide a stylized model that rationalizes these results. Our findings shed novel light on the channels through which sovereign debt inflows affect firms in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2020. "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows," NBER Working Papers 27772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27772
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    5. Zhao, Panting & Yao, Xin & Shen, Rui, 2024. "Capital market internationalization and firms' ESG performance: Evidence from the inclusion of China A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Market Index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Hillary Stein, 2022. "Got Milk? The Effect of Export Price Shocks on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 23-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Ding, Haoyuan & Jin, Yuying & Jin, Zeyang & Nie, Guangyu, 2024. "Winners and losers from financial sector openness: A Firm’s international exposure matters," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    9. Marcus Hagedorn, 2021. "An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9290, CESifo.
    10. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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