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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

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  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Ghosh, Atish R.
  • Blanchard, Olivier
  • Chamon, Marcos

Abstract

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Blanchard, Olivier & Chamon, Marcos, 2015. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10909
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital inflows; Capital controls; Foreign exchange intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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