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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

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  • Blanchard, Olivier
  • Chamon, Marcos
  • Ghosh, Atish
  • Ostry, Jonathan D

Abstract

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchard, Olivier & Chamon, Marcos & Ghosh, Atish & Ostry, Jonathan D, 2015. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo Adler & Rui Mano, 2016. "The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention; Concepts and Measurement," IMF Working Papers 16/89, International Monetary Fund.
    2. L. Gauvin & R. Jimborean & J. Ramos Tallada, 2017. "Capital inflows and credit growth: where do we stand?," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 38, february..
    3. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    4. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 17/193, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Tomas Williams, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Working Papers 2017-12, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. repec:eee:jeborg:v:142:y:2017:i:c:p:140-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2015. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 255, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Avdjiev, Stefan & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Serv�n, Luis, 2017. "Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Julian di Giovanni & Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu, 2017. "International spillovers and local credit cycles," Economics Working Papers 1559, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2017.
    10. Matthieu Bussière & Julia Schmidt & Natacha Valla, 2016. "International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care)," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-10, CEPII research center.
    11. Thorsten Beck & Steven Poelhekke, 2017. "Follow the money: Does the Financial Sector Intermediate Natural Resource Windfalls?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-027/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. IRC Task Force on IMF issues & Broos, Menno & Ghalanos, Michalis & Kennedy, Bernard & Landbeck, Alexander & Lerner, Christina & Menezes, Paula & Schiavone, Alessandro & Tilley, Thomas & Viani, Frances, 2016. "Dealing with large and volatile capital flows and the role of the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 180, European Central Bank.
    13. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    14. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Stefan Avdjiev & Bryan Hardy & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Luis Servén, 2017. "Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns," NBER Working Papers 23116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2016. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary in the Philippines?," Trinity Economics Papers tep2116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    17. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off," Discussion Papers 1806, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Adugna Olani, 2016. "Dynamic Capital inflow transmission of monetary policy to emerging markets," Working Papers 1358, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    19. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Europe at the Interdependence War," EconPol Working Paper 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. Corsetti, G. & Dedola, L. & Leduc, S., 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1822, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Pietro Cova & Filippo Natoli, 2017. "International financial flows and the risk-taking channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1152, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2016. "Improved Structural Competitiveness or Deep Recession? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," SEP Working Papers 2016/3, LUISS School of European Political Economy.
    24. Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Trilemma, Dilemma and Global Players," Working Papers 2017-15, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital controls; capital inflows; foreign exchange intervention;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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