IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v106y2016i5p565-69.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Blanchard
  • Jonathan D. Ostry
  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Marcos Chamon

Abstract

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output; the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, stimulating financial intermediation and, potentially, output as well. We explore the implications, and find support for the key predictions in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:565-69 Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161012
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/10605/P2016_1012_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/10605/P2016_1012_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    2. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 407-421.
    3. Paul Krugman, 2014. "Currency Regimes, Capital Flows, and Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 470-493, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2016. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary in the Philippines?," Trinity Economics Papers tep2116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2016. "Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences," ADBI Working Papers 585, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:565-69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.