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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Blanchard

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Jonathan D. Ostry

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Atish R. Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Marcos Chamon

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging-market policymakers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically and find support for the key predictions in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2015. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," Working Paper Series WP15-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp15-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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