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Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy

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  • Kuersteiner, Guido M.
  • Phillips, David C.
  • Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange interventions by exploiting a discontinuous policy rule used by the Central Bank of Colombia. We use a unique data set that comprises tick by tick intervention and order book data, daily capital in- and outflows, and balance sheet information of financial institutions. We apply regression discontinuity methods to identify the surprise component of rule-based interventions and use this variation to measure how they affect exchange rates and capital flows. Our findings indicate that interventions had significant effects on the exchange rate, albeit short-lived (2–3 weeks). Moreover, capital controls amplify the effect of intervention, though some effect remains even in the presence of free capital flows. A methodological contribution of the paper is to extend regression discontinuity designs to a time-series environment and to show how these techniques can be used to identify and estimate local non-linear impulse response functions. A clearly defined policy rule and high frequency data are crucial in exploiting local variation around the policy cutoff.

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  • Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Phillips, David C. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 118-138.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:118-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    2. Lukas Boer, 2019. "Measuring the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention Policies on Exchange Rates," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 128, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    4. Rieth, Malte & Menkhoff, Lukas & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets," Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Pamela Cardozo & Fredy Gamboa & David Perez-Reyna & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Banking Limits on Foreign Holdings: Disentangling the Portfolio Balance Channel," Borradores de Economia 934, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Zeqin Liu & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin, 2019. "Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201904, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2019.
    7. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    8. Pietro Bonaldi & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "An Auction-Based Test of Private Information in an Interdealer FX Market," Borradores de Economia 1049, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    10. Hernando Vargas & Pamela Cardozo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2019. "International reserve policy and the effectiveness of sterilized FX intervention in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 103-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Hernando Vargas-Herrera & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "Effectiveness of FX Intervention and the Flimsiness of Exchange rate Expectations," Borradores de Economia 1070, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Perez-Reyna, David & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2019. "Exchange rate effects of financial regulations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 228-245.
    13. Shengfang Tang & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin, 2019. "Testing Unconfoundedness Assumption Using Auxiliary Variables," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201905, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2019.
    14. Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Pinzón-Puerto, Freddy A. & Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra, 2020. "A Comprehensive History of Regression Discontinuity Designs: An Empirical Survey of the last 60 Years," Working papers 38, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    15. Horacio Aguirre & Gustavo Cañonero & Mario Torriani, 2019. "Foreign exchange intervention and reserve accumulation in an emerging market economy: selected issues," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 57-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Daniel Ordoñez‐Callamand & Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Luis F. Melo‐Velandia, 2018. "Foreign exchange intervention revisited: A new way of estimating censored models," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 195-213, June.
    17. Laura Andrade-Pardo & Oscar Valencia-Arana & Diego Vásquez-Escobar & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Uncovering the portfolio balance channel with the use of sovereign credit ratings," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 34(81), pages 191-205, November.
    18. José Antonio Ocampo & Germán D. Orbegozo & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2020. "Post-graduation from the original sin problem The effects of market participation on sovereign debt markets," Borradores de Economia 1113, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Itamar Caspi & Amit Friedman & Sigal Ribon, 2018. "The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.04, Bank of Israel.
    20. Anton Grui, 2020. "Uncovered interest parity with foreign exchange interventions under exchange rate peg and inflation targeting: The case of Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 14-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    21. Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "Econometric analysis of potential outcomes time series: instruments, shocks, linearity and the causal response function," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    22. Nikhil Patel & Paolo Cavllino, 2019. "FX intervention: goals, strategies and tactics," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 25-44, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rule-based intervention; Portfolio balance; Foreign exchange policy; Regression discontinuity; Non-linear impulse response;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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