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Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

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  • Wenxin Du
  • Alexander Tepper
  • Adrien Verdelhan

Abstract

We find that deviations from the covered interest rate parity condition (CIP) imply large, persistent, and systematic arbitrage opportunities in one of the largest asset markets in the world. Contrary to the common view, these deviations for major currencies are not explained away by credit risk or transaction costs. They are particularly strong for forward contracts that appear on the banks' balance sheets at the end of the quarter, pointing to a causal effect of banking regulation on asset prices. The CIP deviations also appear significantly correlated with other fixed-income spreads and with nominal interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2017. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 23170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amador, Manuel & Bianchi, Javier & Bocola, Luigi & Perri, Fabrizio, 2017. "Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    4. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    5. Stefan Avdjiev & Wenxin Du & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity," BIS Working Papers 592, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:48:y:2017:i:2017-01:p:235-316 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:chb:bcchec:v:20:y:2017:i:3:p:082-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2018. "Intermediary Asset Pricing and the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 24415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    5. Borisenko, Dmitry & Pozdeev, Igor, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Currency Returns: the Foresight Saga," Working Papers on Finance 1708, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised 1710.
    6. Ragna Alstadheim & Christine Blandhol, 2018. "The global financial cycle, bank capital flows and monetary policy. Evidence from Norway," Working Paper 2018/2, Norges Bank.
    7. Matthieu Bussiere & Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2018. "The New Fama Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 24342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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