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Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes

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  • He, Zhiguo
  • Kelly, Bryan
  • Manela, Asaf

Abstract

We find that shocks to the equity capital ratio of financial intermediaries—Primary Dealer counterparties of the New York Federal Reserve—possess significant explanatory power for cross-sectional variation in expected returns. This is true not only for commonly studied equity and government bond market portfolios, but also for other more sophisticated asset classes such as corporate and sovereign bonds, derivatives, commodities, and currencies. Our intermediary capital risk factor is strongly procyclical, implying countercyclical intermediary leverage. The price of risk for intermediary capital shocks is consistently positive and of similar magnitude when estimated separately for individual asset classes, suggesting that financial intermediaries are marginal investors in many markets and hence key to understanding asset prices.

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  • He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:1:p:1-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.08.002
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    2. Malamud, Semyon & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2018. "An Intermediation-Based Model of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 13182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Gino Cenedese & Angelo Ranaldo & Michalis Vasios, 2018. "OTC Premia," Working Papers on Finance 1818, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised May 2019.
    6. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    7. Klinger, Sven & Lando, David, 2018. "Safe Haven CDS Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 12694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    10. Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Daniel Greenwald, 2017. "Financial Fragility with SAM?," 2017 Meeting Papers 1525, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    14. Gabor Pinter, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Shock with the Highest Price of Risk," Discussion Papers 1623, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2017.
    15. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2016. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3224-3237, October.
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    18. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2018. "Intermediary Asset Pricing and the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 24415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Daniel Bierbaumer & Malte Rieth & Anton Velinov, 2018. "Nonlinear Intermediary Pricing in the Oil Futures Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1722, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Ma, Sai, 2018. "Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 12628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sophisticated asset classes; Primary dealers; Intermediary capital; Leverage cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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