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Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread

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  • Yang, Fan

Abstract

I identify a “slope” factor in the cross section of commodity futures returns: high-basis commodity futures have higher loadings on this factor than low-basis commodity futures. Combined with a level factor (an index of commodity futures), this slope factor explains most of the average excess returns of commodity futures portfolios sorted by basis. More importantly, I find that this factor is significantly correlated with investment shocks, which represent the technological progress in producing new capital. I investigate a competitive dynamic equilibrium model of commodity production to endogenize this correlation. The model reproduces the cross-sectional futures returns and many asset pricing tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Fan, 2013. "Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 164-184.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:110:y:2013:i:1:p:164-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.04.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    2. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
    3. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:511-524 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marta Giampietro & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2017. "Estimating Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Hidden Regimes: Applications to Commodity Pricing," Working Papers 614, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Marta Giampietro & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2015. "Can No-Arbitrage SDF Models with Regime Shifts Explain the Correlations Between Commodity, Stock, and Bond Returns?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1619, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Shang, Hua & Yuan, Ping & Huang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic factors and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 316-332.
    8. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
    9. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:11:p:1745-1757 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    11. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:2:p:197-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Sunny Chun Tsui & Wing Hong Chan, 2017. "Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1745-1757, November.
    13. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:1:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures; Investment-based asset pricing; Investment shocks; Basis spread;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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