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Endogenous Technological Progress and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

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  • Lin, Xiaoji

    (OH State University)

Abstract

I study the cross sectional variation of stock returns and technological progress using a dynamic equilibrium model with production. In the model, technological progress is endogenously driven by R&D investment and is composed of two parts. One part is product innovation devoted to creating new products; the other part is dedicated to increasing the productivity of physical investment and is embodied in new tangible capital (e.g., structures and equipment). The model breaks the symmetry assumed in standard models between intangible capital and tangible capital, in which the accumulation processes of tangible capital stock and intangible capital stock do not affect each other. The model explains qualitatively and in many cases quantitatively well-documented empirical regularities: (i) the positive relation between R&D investment and the average stock returns; (ii) the negative relation between physical investment and the average stock returns; and (iii) the positive relation between book-to-market ratio and the average stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous Technological Progress and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2012-22, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2012-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Siyahhan, Baran, 2015. "Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-16.
    2. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:237-249 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gu, Lifeng, 2016. "Product market competition, R&D investment, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 441-455.
    4. Hiroki Arato & Katsunori Yamada, 2012. "Japan's Intangible Capital and Valuation of Corporations in a Neoclassical Framework," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 459-478, October.
    5. OA Carboni & G. Medda, 2016. "R&D, Export, and Investment Decision," Working Paper CRENoS 201605, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Thien Nguyen & Steve Raymond & Lukas Schmid & Mariano Croce, 2016. "Government Debt and the Returns to Innovation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Carboni, Oliviero A., 2017. "The effect of public support on investment and R&D: An empirical evaluation on European manufacturing firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 282-295.
    8. Marcelo Ochoa, 2013. "Volatility, labor heterogeneity and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Wang, Chong & Wu, Chaopeng, 2013. "Banking systems, innovations, intellectual property protections, and financial markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(12), pages 2390-2396.
    10. repec:eee:jbfina:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:146-164 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang & Frederico Belo, 2014. "External Equity Financing Costs, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," 2014 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Randall Morck, 2016. "Productivity growth and stock returns: firm- and aggregate-level analyses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(38), pages 3644-3664, August.
    13. Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Iftekhar Hasan & Fotios Pasiouras, 2013. "Efficiency and stock returns: evidence from the insurance industry," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 429-442, December.
    14. Belo, Frederico & Yu, Jianfeng, 2013. "Government investment and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 325-339.
    15. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Maria Ana Vitorino, 2014. "Brand Capital and Firm Value," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
    16. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang, 2014. "External Equity Financing Shocks, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 20210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Yang, Fan, 2013. "Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 164-184.
    18. Huang, Yuan & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "The q-theory explanation for the external financing effect: New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 69-81.
    19. Ryo Jinnai, 2015. "Innovation, Product Cycle, and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 484-504, July.
    20. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Maria Ana Vitorino, 2014. "Brand Capital and Firm Value," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
    21. repec:eee:finana:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:16-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Re-Jin Guo & Nan Zhou, 2016. "Innovation capability and post-IPO performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 335-357, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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