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Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices

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  • Leonid Kogan
  • Dimitris Papanikolaou

Abstract

We explore the impact of investment-specific technology (IST) shocks on the crosssection of stock returns. IST shocks reflect technological advances embodied in new capital goods. Using a structural model, we show that IST shocks have a differential effect on the two fundamental components of firm value, the value of assets in place and the value of growth opportunities. This differential sensitivity to IST shocks has two main implications. First, risk premia on firms with abundant growth opportunities are different from those on firms with limited growth opportunities. Second, firms with similar levels of growth opportunities comove with each other, giving rise to the value factor in stock returns. Our model replicates the failure of the conditional CAPM to capture the value premium. Our empirical tests confirm the model's predictions for asset returns and investment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 17795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17795 Note: AP
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    1. repec:spr:reaccs:v:22:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11142-017-9402-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Curatola, Giuliano & Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Meinerding, Christoph, 2016. "Investment-specific shocks, business cycles, and asset prices," SAFE Working Paper Series 129, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    3. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 64-79.
    4. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "A Theory of Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Jun Li & Xiaofei Zhao, 2015. "Labor-Force Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: the Importance of Skilled Labor," NBER Working Papers 21487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2017. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2010. "Growth Opportunities and Technology Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 532-536, May.
    8. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard, 2014. "Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 10291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Comment on "Shocks and Crashes"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 355-366 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andres Donangelo & François Gourio & Matthias Kehrig & Miguel Palacios, 2017. "The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns," Working Papers 17-70, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Kai Li & Fang Yang & Hengjie Ai, 2015. "Financial Intermediation and Capital Reallocation," 2015 Meeting Papers 429, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 64-79.
    13. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Randall Morck, 2016. "Productivity growth and stock returns: firm- and aggregate-level analyses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(38), pages 3644-3664, August.
    14. Thomas Eisenbach & Martin Schmalz & Marianne Andries, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion," 2015 Meeting Papers 1069, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2013. "Winners and Losers: Creative Destruction and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 18671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    17. repec:eee:moneco:v:90:y:2017:i:c:p:84-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Donangelo, Andres & Gourio, Francois & Kehrig, Matthias & Palacios, Miguel, 2017. "The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns," Working Paper Series WP-2017-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook & Lee, Jason, 2015. "How does information technology improve aggregate productivity? A new channel of productivity dispersion and reallocation," Research Policy, Elsevier, pages 999-1016.
    20. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:447-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Curatola, Giuliano & Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Meinerding, Christoph, 2016. "Investment-specific shocks, business cycles, and asset prices," SAFE Working Paper Series 129, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    22. Andries, Marianne & Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Schmalz, Martin C., 2014. "Horizon-dependent risk aversion and the timing and pricing of uncertainty," Staff Reports 703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Mar 2017.
    23. Xiaoji Lin & Ding Luo & Andres Donangelo & Frederico Belo, 2017. "Labor Hiring, Aggregate Dividends, and Return Predictability in the Time Series," 2017 Meeting Papers 885, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Mikhail Simutin & JessieJiaxu Wang & Lars Kuehn, 2014. "A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model," 2014 Meeting Papers 695, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Sun, Lingxia, 2017. "Dynamic conditional correlations between Chinese sector returns and the S&P 500 index: An interpretation based on investment shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 309-325.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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