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Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns

  • João F. Gomes
  • Leonid Kogan
  • Motohiro Yogo

The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable‐good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input‐output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we construct portfolios of durable‐good, nondurable‐good, and service producers. In the cross section, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the service portfolio earns a risk premium exceeding 4 percent annually. In the time series, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We explain these findings in a general equilibrium asset‐pricing model with endogenous production.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/648882
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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/648882
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 117 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 941-986

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/648882
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/

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