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Data-snooping biases in tests of financial asset pricing models

  • Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan)
  • MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-

Tests of financial asset pricing models may yield misleading inferences when properties of the data are used to construct the test statistics. In particular, such tests are often based on returns to portfolios of common stock, where portfolios are constructed by sorting on some empirically motivated characteristic of the securities such as market value of equity. Analytical calculations, Monte Carlo simulations, and two empirical examples show that the effects of this type of data snooping can be substantial. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/2249
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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management in its series Working papers with number 3020-89..

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:2249
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  1. John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Merton, Robert C., 1985. "On the current state of the stock market rationality hypothesis," Working papers 1717-85., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  3. Blume, Marshall E, 1970. "Portfolio Theory: A Step Toward Its Practical Application," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 152-73, April.
  4. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  5. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1988. " An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as an Instrumental Variable for Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-25, June.
  6. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
  7. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel, 1987. " Mean-Variance Spanning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 873-88, September.
  8. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Mimicking Portfolios and Exact Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-9, March.
  9. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
  10. Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Multivariate tests of financial models : A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 3-27, March.
  11. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-52, September.
  12. Brown, Philip & Kleidon, Allan W. & Marsh, Terry A., 1983. "New evidence on the nature of size-related anomalies in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-56, June.
  13. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
  14. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1987. "On multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-371, June.
  15. Arne Sandström, 1987. "Asymptotic normality of linear functions of concomitants of order statistics," Metrika, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 129-142, December.
  16. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September.
  17. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
  18. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "On correlations and inferences about mean-variance efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-90, March.
  19. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  20. Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "Funds, Factors, and Diversification in Arbitrage Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1305-23, September.
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