IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1602.04902.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM

Author

Listed:
  • Zura Kakushadze
  • Willie Yu

Abstract

We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing general multifactor risk models (for equities) via any combination of style factors, principal components (betas) and/or industry factors. For short horizons we employ the Russian-doll risk model construction to obtain a nonsingular factor covariance matrix. This generalizes the heterotic risk model construction to include arbitrary non-industry risk factors as well as industry risk factors with generic "weights". The aim of sharing our proprietary know-how with the investment community is to encourage organic risk model building. The presentation is intended to be essentially self-contained and pedagogical. So, stop wasting money and complaining, start building risk models and enjoy!

Suggested Citation

  • Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.04902
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.04902
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    2. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    6. Motta, Giovanni & Hafner, Christian M. & von Sachs, Rainer, 2011. "Locally Stationary Factor Models: Identification And Nonparametric Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1279-1319, December.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    8. Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "Mutual Fund Separation in Financial Theory—The Separating Distributions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 10, pages 309-356, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Chen, Nai-Fu & Grundy, Bruce & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Changing Risk, Changing Risk Premiums, and Dividend Yield Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 51-70, January.
    10. Ng, Victor & Engle, Robert F. & Rothschild, Michael, 1992. "A multi-dynamic-factor model for stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 245-266.
    11. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    12. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
    13. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    14. Blume, Marshall E & Friend, Irwin, 1973. "A New Look at the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 19-33, March.
    15. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    16. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    17. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    19. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1008, June.
    20. Rosenberg, Barr, 1974. "Extra-Market Components of Covariance in Security Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 263-274, March.
    21. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    22. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    23. Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, September.
    24. Ross, Stephen A, 1978. "A Simple Approach to the Valuation of Risky Streams," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 453-475, July.
    25. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    26. Goyal, Amit & Pérignon, Christophe & Villa, Christophe, 2008. "How common are common return factors across the NYSE and Nasdaq?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 252-271, December.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    28. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    29. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    30. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    31. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1113-1141, December.
    32. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
    33. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    34. Hall, Anthony D. & Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E., 2002. "Using Bayesian variable selection methods to choose style factors in global stock return models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2301-2325.
    35. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    36. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    37. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    38. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    39. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
    40. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    41. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    42. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    43. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    44. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    45. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    46. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    47. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    48. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "Russian-Doll Risk Models," Papers 1412.4342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    49. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 45-72, January.
    50. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    51. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-467.
    52. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    53. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
    54. Jason MacQueen, 2003. "The structure of multifactor equity risk models," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(4), pages 313-322, March.
    55. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    56. Shanken, Jay, 1987. "Nonsynchronous Data and the Covariance-Factor Structure of Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 221-231, June.
    57. Liew, Jimmy & Vassalou, Maria, 2000. "Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 221-245, August.
    58. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    59. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    60. Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120.
    61. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    62. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    63. Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1984. "A Critical Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 323-346, June.
    64. Michael W. Brandt & Alon Brav & John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2010. "The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Time Trend or Speculative Episodes?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 863-899, February.
    65. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    66. Zhang, Chu, 2010. "A Reexamination of the Causes of Time-Varying Stock Return Volatilities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 663-684, June.
    67. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    68. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D, 1986. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theo;ry and Macroeconomic Factor Measures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, February.
    69. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
    70. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "How to combine a billion alphas," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(1), pages 64-80, January.
    2. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "Dead Alphas as Risk Factors," Papers 1709.06641, arXiv.org.
    3. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Industry Classification," Papers 1607.04883, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    4. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "Open Source Fundamental Industry Classification," Data, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-77, June.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "Decoding Stock Market with Quant Alphas," Papers 1708.02984, arXiv.org.
    6. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "Open Source Fundamental Industry Classification," Papers 1706.04210, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    7. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2018. "Dead alphas as risk factors," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 110-115, March.
    8. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2021. "ETF Risk Models," Papers 2110.07138, arXiv.org.
    9. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Factor Models for Cancer Signatures," Papers 1604.08743, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    10. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2018. "Decoding stock market with quant alphas," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(1), pages 38-48, January.
    11. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "*K-means and Cluster Models for Cancer Signatures," Papers 1703.00703, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    12. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "Machine Learning Risk Models," Papers 1903.06334, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    13. Zura Kakushadze, 2020. "Quant Bust 2020," Papers 2006.05632, arXiv.org.
    14. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2017. "Notes on Fano Ratio and Portfolio Optimization," Papers 1711.10640, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    15. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    16. Kakushadze, Zura & Yu, Willie, 2016. "Factor models for cancer signatures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 527-559.
    17. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2018. "Betas, Benchmarks and Beating the Market," Papers 1807.09919, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    2. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    3. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    4. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "Russian-Doll Risk Models," Papers 1412.4342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2014. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Papers 1409.2575, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    6. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2015. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-27, May.
    7. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    8. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    9. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    10. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    11. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    12. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    13. repec:gnv:wpaper:unige:76321 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Patrick Gagliardini & Elisa Ossola & Olivier Scaillet, 2016. "Time‐Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross‐Sectional Equity Data Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 985-1046, May.
    15. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    16. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    17. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    18. Sainan Jin & Liangjun Su & Yonghui Zhang, 2015. "Nonparametric testing for anomaly effects in empirical asset pricing models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-36, February.
    19. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
    20. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    21. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.04902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.