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Changing Risk, Changing Risk Premiums, and Dividend Yield Effects

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  • Chen, Nai-Fu
  • Grundy, Bruce
  • Stambaugh, Robert F

Abstract

The authors investigate the cross-sectional relation between dividend yield and expected return and attempt to include various effects of changing risk measures and changing risk premiums. A stock's risk is measured by its sensitivities to two factors, a market factor and a changing-risk-premium factor. After analyzing dividend-related changes in risk measures, the authors investigate the presence of dividend effects in expected returns using four methods, each imposing a different structure on the temporal behavior of risk measures and risk premiums. For each method, they find no reliable cross-sectional relation between dividend yield and risk-adjusted expected return. Copyright 1990 by the University of Chicago.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Nai-Fu & Grundy, Bruce & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Changing Risk, Changing Risk Premiums, and Dividend Yield Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 51-70, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:63:y:1990:i:1:p:s51-70
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2015. "The Structural Stability of a One-Day Risk Premium in View of the Recent Financial Crisis," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 136-142.
    2. Hanlon, Michelle & Myers, James N. & Shevlin, Terry, 2003. "Dividend taxes and firm valuation:: a re-examination," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-153, June.
    3. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    4. Seida, Jim A. & Wempe, William F., 2000. "Do capital gain tax rate increases affect individual investors' trading decisions?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-57, August.
    5. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    6. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
    7. Barclay, Michael J. & Heitzman, Shane M. & Smith, Clifford W., 2013. "Debt and taxes: Evidence from the real estate industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 74-93.
    8. Trevor S. Harris & R. Glenn Hubbard & Deen Kemsley, 1999. "The Share Price Effects of Dividend Taxes and Tax Imputation Credits," NBER Working Papers 7445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    10. Rozycki, John J., 1997. "A tax motivation for smoothing dividends," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-578.
    11. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    12. Dhaliwal, Dan & Krull, Linda & Li, Oliver Zhen, 2007. "Did the 2003 Tax Act reduce the cost of equity capital?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 121-150, March.
    13. Harris, Trevor S. & Hubbard, R. Glenn & Kemsley, Deen, 2001. "The share price effects of dividend taxes and tax imputation credits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-596, March.
    14. Dhaliwal, Dan & Zhen Li, Oliver & Trezevant, Robert, 2003. "Is a dividend tax penalty incorporated into the return on a firm's common stock?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-178, June.
    15. Chiang, Thomas C. & Doong, Shuh-Chyi, 1999. "Empirical analysis of real and financial volatilities on stock excess returns: evidence from Taiwan industrial data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 187-200.
    16. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.

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