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Using Bayesian Variable Selection Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Hall

    (University of Technology)

  • Soosung Hwang

    (City University Business School)

  • Stephen E. Satchell

    (Trinity College)

Abstract

This paper applies Bayesian variable selection methods from the statistics literature to give guidance in the decision to include/omit factors in a global (linear factor) stock return model. Once one has accounted for country and sector, it is possible to see which style or styles best explains current asset returns. The study suggests that global style is not an important component once country and sector have been accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Hall & Soosung Hwang & Stephen E. Satchell, 2000. "Using Bayesian Variable Selection Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1213, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 2000. "Nonparametric seemingly unrelated regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 257-281, October.
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December.
    3. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Mimicking Portfolios and Exact Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-9, March.
    4. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December.
    5. Kuo, G. W. & Satchell, S. E., 1998. "Global Equity Styles and Industry Effects: Portfolio Construction via Dummy Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9807, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    7. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Ruipeng & Di Matteo, T. & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "True and apparent scaling: The proximity of the Markov-switching multifractal model to long-range dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 35-42.
    2. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    3. G. Christodoulakis & E. Mamatzakis, 2010. "Return attribution analysis of the UK insurance portfolios," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 405-420, July.
    4. Christian Pedersen & Stephen Satchell, 2003. "Can NN-algorithms and macroeconomic data improve OLS industry returns forecasts?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 273-289.
    5. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    6. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2014. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Papers 1409.2575, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    7. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    8. Soosung Hwang & Alexandre Rubesam, 2015. "The disappearance of momentum," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 584-607, May.
    9. Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2005. "GARCH model with cross-sectional volatility: GARCHX models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 203-216.
    10. Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2005. "Valuing information using utility functions: how much should we pay for linear factor models?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16.
    11. George A. Christodoulakis, 2008. "Asymmetric rotation of risk factors in a global portfolio," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 391-403, August.
    12. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    13. Steve Satchell & Soosung Hwang, 2001. "The Asset Allocation Decision in a Loss Aversion World," Working Papers wp01-14, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    14. Giacomo Raffaelli & Matteo Marsili, 2006. "Risk bubbles and market instability," Working Papers wp06-22, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    15. Thomas Lux, 2007. "Collective Opinion Formation in a Business Climate Survey," Working Papers wp07-10, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    16. George Christodoulakis, 2002. "Sharp Style Analysis in the MSCI Sector Portfolios: A Monte Caro Integration Approach," Working Papers wp02-06, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    17. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    18. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "Russian-Doll Risk Models," Papers 1412.4342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    19. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "Factor Models for Alpha Streams," Papers 1406.3396, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
    20. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2015. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-27, May.
    21. Reiner Franke, 2008. "A Short Note on the Problematic Concept of Excess Demand in Asset Pricing Models with Mean-Variance Optimization," Working Papers wp08-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    22. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.

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