IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v44y1998i4p485-500.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Cost of Capital Through Time: An Analysis of the Sources of Error

Author

Listed:
  • Wayne E. Ferson

    (Department of Finance and Business Economics, Box 353200, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195)

  • Dennis H. Locke

    (Moss Adams Advisory Services L.L.P., 1001 Fourth Avenue, Suite 2700, Seattle, Washington 98154-1199)

Abstract

Practitioners needing estimates of a firm's equity cost of capital have long relied on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Recent evidence casts renewed doubt on the validity of the CAPM and beta. However, there is not much evidence to gauge the importance of the rejections of the CAPM in a practical decision-making context. This paper presents evidence on the sources of error in estimating required returns over time. We use a number of proxies for the true mean variance efficient portfolio, allowing that the CAPM is the "wrong" model. The analyst is assumed to rely on a standard market index. We find that the great majority of the error in estimating the cost of equity capital is found in the risk premium estimate, and relatively small errors are due to the risk measure, or beta. This suggests that analysts should improve estimation procedures for market risk premiums, which are commonly based on historical averages. This can be done by using regression models, such as have appeared in the recent finance literature, or by purchasing forecasts from firms that specialize in producing them.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne E. Ferson & Dennis H. Locke, 1998. "Estimating the Cost of Capital Through Time: An Analysis of the Sources of Error," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(4), pages 485-500, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:44:y:1998:i:4:p:485-500
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.44.4.485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.4.485
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.44.4.485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. "Mimicking Portfolios and Exact Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-9, March.
    5. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    6. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    7. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
    8. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-1093, September.
    9. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1995. "Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-28, May.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Ferson, Wayne E. & Foerster, Stephen R., 1994. "Finite sample properties of the generalized method of moments in tests of conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 29-55, August.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Urbański, Stanisław & Zarzecki, Dariusz, 2022. "The Fama-French model for estimating the cost of equity capital: The impact of real options of investment projects," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    2. Mario Situm, 2021. "Determination of expected cost of equity with the CAPM: Theoretical extension using the law of error propagation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 77-84, January.
    3. Martínez-Sánchez, José Francisco & Pérez-Lechuga, Gilberto & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (ed.), 2014. "Modelos para la toma de decisiones en la Ingeniería Económica y Financiera: Un enfoque estocástico Vol. 2," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, edition 1, volume 2, number 012, July.
    4. Magdalena Mikolajek-Gocejna, 2021. "Estimation, Instability, and Non-Stationarity of Beta Coefficients for Twenty-four Emerging Markets in 2005-2021," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 370-395.
    5. Urbański Stanisław & Leśkow Jacek, 2020. "Using the ICAPM to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios: empirical evidence on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 73-94, March.
    6. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    7. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2002. "On the usefulness of linear factor models in predicting expected returns in mean-variance analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 449-466.
    8. Urbański Stanisław, 2019. "The Cost of Equity Capital in Stock Portfolios Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Using the Classic CAPM," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 48-62, June.
    9. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    10. Avraham Kamara & Lance Young, 2018. "Yes, the Composition of the Market Portfolio Matters: The Estimated Cost of Equity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 911-929, December.
    11. Božović, Miloš, 2023. "Can a dynamic correlation factor improve the pricing of industry portfolios?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. David Souder & Greg Reilly & Philip Bromiley & Scott Mitchell, 2016. "A Behavioral Understanding of Investment Horizon and Firm Performance," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 1202-1218, October.
    13. Fuenzalida, Darcy & Mongrut, Samuel, 2010. "Estimation Of Discount Rates In Latin America: Empirical Evidence And Challenges," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 15(28), pages 7-43.
    14. Kolari, James W. & Huang, Jianhua Z. & Butt, Hilal Anwar & Liao, Huiling, 2022. "International tests of the ZCAPM asset pricing model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. He, Zhongzhi & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2007. "Cost of equity for Canadian and U.S. sectors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 215-229, August.
    16. Koedijk, C.G. & van Dijk, M.A., 2002. "Do Global Risk Factors Matter for International Cost of Capital Computations?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-100-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    17. Ramazan Gencay & Nikola Gradojevic, 2009. "Errors-in-Variables Estimation with No Instruments," Working Paper series 30_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    18. Magdalena Mikolajek-Gocejna, 2022. "Systematic Risk of ESG Companies Listed on the Polish Capital Market in 2019-2022," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 597-615.
    19. Max Schreder & Pawel Bilinski, 2022. "Information Quality and the Expected Rate of Return: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(2), pages 139-170, June.
    20. Urbański Stanisław, 2021. "The Cost of Capital for Investment in the Warsaw Stock Exchange Indexes – Versus Djia," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(1), pages 122-143, June.
    21. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    22. Francois-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret & Alain Coen, 2006. "Towards New Empirical Versions of Financial and Accounting Models Corrected for Measurement Errors," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp132006, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    23. Stanisław Urbański & Jacek Leśkow, 2020. "Using the ICAPM to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios: empirical evidence on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 73-94, March.
    24. James W. Kolari & Jianhua Z. Huang & Wei Liu & Huiling Liao, 2022. "Further Tests of the ZCAPM Asset Pricing Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.
    25. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2005. "An examination of linear factor models in country equity asset allocation strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 808-823, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    2. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    3. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    5. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market II: asset pricing," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 421-444, September.
    6. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    7. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189.
    8. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 2002. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 249-298, November.
    9. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    10. Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, February.
    11. Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    13. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    14. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    15. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Time Varying Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," MPRA Paper 37561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    17. Attiya Y. Javed, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE-Working Papers 2000:179, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    19. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    20. Renault, Éric & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1997. "Les techniques quantitatives de la gestion de portefeuille," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 265-310, mars-juin.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:44:y:1998:i:4:p:485-500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.