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On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing

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Listed:
  • Jacob Boudoukh
  • Roni Michaely
  • Matthew Richardson
  • Michael Roberts

Abstract

Previous research showed that the dividend price ratio process changed remarkably during the 1980's and 1990's, but that the total payout ratio (dividends plus repurchases over price) changed very little. We investigate implications of this difference for asset pricing models. In particular, the widely documented decline in the predictive power of dividends for excess stock returns in time series regressions in recent data is vastly overstated. Statistically and economically significant predictability is found at both short and long horizons when total payout yield is used instead of dividend yield. We also provide evidence that total payout yield has information in the cross-section for expected stock returns exceeding that of dividend yield and that the high minus low payout yield portfolio is a priced factor. The evidence throughout is shown to be robust to the method of measuring total payouts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael Roberts, 2004. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 10651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10651
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    1. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. " Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
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      • Allen, Franklin & Michaely, Roni, 2003. "Payout policy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 337-429 Elsevier.
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    11. Benartzi, Shlomo & Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. " Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1007-1034, July.
    12. John, Kose & Williams, Joseph, 1985. " Dividends, Dilution, and Taxes: A Signalling Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1053-1070, September.
    13. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2002. "Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-424, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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