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A Stochastic Model of Investment, Marginal q and the Market Value of theFirm


  • Andrew B. Abel


This paper presents closed-form solutions for the investment and valuation of a competitive firm with a Cobb-Douglas production function and a constant elasticity adjustment cost function in the presence of stochastic prices for output and inputs. The value of the firm is a linear function of the capital stock. The optimal rate of investmentis an increasing function of the slope of the value function with respect to the capital stock (marginal q). A mean preserving spread of the distribution of future price increases investment. An increase in the scale of the random component of a price can increase, decrease or not affect the rate of investment depending on the sign of the covariance of this price with a weighted average of all prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Abel, 1984. "A Stochastic Model of Investment, Marginal q and the Market Value of theFirm," NBER Working Papers 1484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1982. "Adjustment Costs, Uncertainty, and the Behavior of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 415-427, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Raouf Boucekkine & Bruno De Oliveira Cruz, 2015. "Technological Progress and Investment: A Non-Technical Survey," Working Papers halshs-01145485, HAL.
    3. Richard W. Kopcke, 1995. "Tobin's Q, economic rents, and the optimal stock of capital," Working Papers 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hajilee, Massomeh, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-12.
    5. Benavie, Arthur & Grinols, Earl & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1996. "Adjustment costs and investment in a stochastic endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 77-100, August.
    6. Moretto, Michele & Panteghini, Paolo M. & Scarpa, Carlo, 2008. "Profit sharing and investment by regulated utilities: A welfare analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 315-337, December.
    7. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778 Elsevier.
    8. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    9. Bronwyn H. Hall, 1988. "The Effect of Takeover Activity on Corporate Research and Development," NBER Chapters,in: Corporate Takeovers: Causes and Consequences, pages 69-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bruno de Oliveira Cruz & Raouf Boucekkine, 2006. "Technological Progress and Investment Microeconomic Foundations and Macroeconomic Implications," Discussion Papers 1170, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    11. Laing, Timothy, 2015. "Rights to the forest, REDD+ and elections: Mining in Guyana," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 250-261.
    12. Meng, Rujing, 2008. "A patent race in a real options setting: Investment strategy, valuation, CAPM beta, and return volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3192-3217, October.
    13. Salas-Fumás, Vicente & Rosell-Martínez, Jorge & Delgado-Gómez, José Manuel, 2016. "Capacity, investment and market power in the economic value of energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 28-39.
    14. Mankan M. Koné & Carl Gaigné & Lota Dabio Tamini, 2017. "Duopolistic Competition and Optimal Switching Time from Export to FDI in Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-23, CIRANO.
    15. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, "undated". "An Exact Solution for the Investment and Market Value of a Firm Facing Uncertainty, Adjustment Costs, and Irreversibility," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    16. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Domestic Investment in Ghana," MPRA Paper 80474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Marcel Gérard & Frédéric Verscueren, 2002. "Finance, uncertainty and investment: assessing the gains and losses of a generalized non linear structural approach using Belgian panel data," Working Paper Research 26, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2006. "R&D, productivity and market value," IFS Working Papers W06/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    20. M. Menegatti, 2003. "Public Investment and Different Sources of Uncertainty," Economics Department Working Papers 2003-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    21. Frank Silvio Marzano & Enrico Saltari, 1999. "Modern Theories of Investment Decisions A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 57, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    22. Bernard Dumas, 1988. "Pricing Physical Assets Internationally," NBER Working Papers 2569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Martin Feldstein & Joosung Jun, 1987. "The Effects of Tax Rules on Nonresidential Fixed Investment: Some Preliminary Evidence from the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 101-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "An exact solution for the investment and value of a firm facing uncertainty, adjustment costs, and irreversibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 831-852, May.
    25. H. Youn Kim, 2003. "Intertemporal production and asset pricing: a duality approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 344-379, April.

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