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Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing

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  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Moench, Emanuel
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

We empirically investigate predictions from alternative intermediary asset pricing theories. The theories distinguish themselves in their use of intermediary equity or leverage as pricing factors or forecasting variables. We find strong support for a parsimonious dynamic pricing model based on broker-dealer leverage as the return forecasting variable and shocks to broker-dealer leverage as a cross-sectional pricing factor. The model performs well in comparison to other intermediary asset pricing models as well as benchmark pricing models in linear and nonlinear specifications. We find little empirical support for pricing models using intermediary equity as state variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian, Tobias & Moench, Emanuel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2016. "Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 11466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    2. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
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    4. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Endogenous Leverage in a Binomial Economy: The Irrelevance of Actual Default," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1877, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    7. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    8. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153.
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    12. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    13. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
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    16. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    17. Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
    18. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorda, Oscar & Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," Working Paper Series 2017-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    3. repec:eee:jfinin:v:35:y:2018:i:pb:p:17-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2015. "Investment funds? vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," BCL working papers 95, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intermediary asset pricing; Leverage Cycles; Macro-Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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