IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models

We propose regression-based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross-sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The estimators explicitly allow for time-varying prices of risk, time-varying betas, and serially dependent pricing factors. Our approach nests the Fama-MacBeth two-pass estimator as a special case. We provide asymptotic multistage standard errors necessary to conduct inference for asset pricing test. We illustrate our new estimators in an application to the joint pricing of stocks and bonds. The application features strongly time-varying, highly significant prices of risks that are found to be quantitatively more important than time-varying betas in reducing pricing errors.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr493.html
Download Restriction: no

File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr493.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/data_indicators/data_2011_sr493_regression_based_estimation_charts.xls
File Function: Data
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 493.

as
in new window

Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision: 01 Dec 2014
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:493
Note: Previous title: “Efficient Regression-Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models”
Contact details of provider: Postal:
33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001

Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/staff_rp/ Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  2. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 14698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
  4. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
  5. Kristensen, Dennis, 2009. "Uniform Convergence Rates Of Kernel Estimators With Heterogeneous Dependent Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1433-1445, October.
  6. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Jay Shanken & Guofu Zhou, 2007. "Estimating and testing beta pricing models: Alternative methods and their performance in simulations," CEMA Working Papers 275, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  10. Dennis Kristensen, 2011. "Nonparametric Detection and Estimation of Structural Change," CREATES Research Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  11. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
  12. Campbell, John, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Scholarly Articles 3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  15. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
  17. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
  18. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
  19. Andrew Ang & Dennis Kristensen, 2011. "Testing Conditional Factor Models," NBER Working Papers 17561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
  21. Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120.
  22. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2013. "Misspecification-robust inference in linear asset pricing models with irrelevant risk factors," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  23. Craig Burnside, 2016. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-330.
  24. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
  25. Donald B. Keim & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  26. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  27. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  28. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  29. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Cesare Robotti, 2005. "Asset-pricing models and economic risk premia: a decomposition," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  30. Patrick GAGLIARDINI & Elisa OSSOLA & Olivier SCAILLET, . "Time-Varying Risk Premium In Large Cross-Sectional Equidity Datasets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-41, Swiss Finance Institute.
  31. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2013. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 682 - 746.
  32. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
  33. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2009. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology," NBER Working Papers 15047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September.
  35. Kandel, Shmuel, 1984. "The likelihood ratio test statistic of mean-variance efficiency without a riskless asset," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 575-592, December.
  36. Stefan Nagel & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 873-909, 06.
  37. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
  38. Zhou, Guofu, 1994. "Analytical GMM Tests: Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 687-709.
  39. Gomes, Joao F & Kogan, Leonid & Zhang, Lu, 2002. "Equilibrium Cross-Section of Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Shanken, Jay, 1986. " Testing Portfolio Efficiency When the Zero-Beta Rate Is Unknown: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 269-76, March.
  41. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Craig Burnside, 2011. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3456-76, December.
  43. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steve, 2004. "Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 4501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
  45. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
  47. Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Multivariate tests of financial models : A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 3-27, March.
  48. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
  49. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  50. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  52. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  53. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, 04.
  54. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2003. "The Conditional CAPM Does Not Explain Asset-pricing Anomalies," Working papers 4427-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  55. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1998. "An Asymptotic Theory for Estimating Beta-Pricing Models Using Cross-Sectional Regression," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1285-1309, 08.
  56. Kleibergen, Frank, 2009. "Tests of risk premia in linear factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 149-173, April.
  57. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. & White, Halbert, 1988. "Some Invariance Principles and Central Limit Theorems for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 210-230, August.
  58. Harry Mamaysky, 2002. "Market Prices of Risk and Return Predictability in a Joint Stock-Bond Pricing Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm297, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2002.
  59. Roll, Richard, 1985. "A note on the geometry of Shanken's CSR T2 test for mean/variance efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 349-357, September.
  60. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
  61. Eric Ghysels, 1998. "On Stable Factor Structures in the Pricing of Risk: Do Time-Varying Betas Help or Hurt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 549-573, 04.
  62. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.