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Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models

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  • Stefan Nagel
  • Kenneth J. Singleton

Abstract

We find that several recently proposed consumption-based models of stock returns, when evaluated using an optimal set of managed portfolios and the associated model-implied conditional moment restrictions, fail to capture key features of risk premiums in equity markets. To arrive at these conclusions, we construct an optimal GMM estimator for models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a conditionally affine function of a set of priced risk factors. Further, for the (often relevant) case where a researcher is proposing a generalized SDF relative to some null model, we show that there is an optimal choice of managed portfolios to use in testing the null against the proposed alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Nagel & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2010. "Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 16457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16457
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-280, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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