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Risks For the Long Run: Estimation with Time Aggregation

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • Dana Kiku
  • Amir Yaron

Abstract

The long-run risks (LRR) asset pricing model emphasizes the role of low-frequency movements in expected growth and economic uncertainty, along with investor preferences for early resolution of uncertainty, as an important economic-channel that determines asset prices. In this paper, we estimate the LRR model. To accomplish this we develop a method that allows us to estimate models with recursive preferences, latent state variables, and time-aggregated data. Time-aggregation makes the decision interval of the agent an important parameter to estimate. We find that time-aggregation can significantly affect parameter estimates and statistical inference. Imposing the pricing restrictions and explicitly accounting for time-aggregation, we show that the estimated LRR model can account for the joint dynamics of aggregate consumption, asset cash flows and prices, including the equity premia, risk-free rate and volatility puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Amir Yaron, 2012. "Risks For the Long Run: Estimation with Time Aggregation," NBER Working Papers 18305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18305 Note: AP EFG ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:142-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    3. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    4. Ana Maria Santacreu & Federico Gavazzoni, 2015. "International R&D Spillovers and Asset Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 405, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2017. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in Long-Run Risk Models," SAFE Working Paper Series 186, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    6. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFR Working Papers 17-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Lundtofte, Frederik & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2013. "Risk premia: Exact solutions vs. log-linear approximations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4256-4264.
    8. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    9. Ana Maria Santacreu & Federico Gavazzoni, 2014. "International Comovement through Endogenous Long Run Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 993, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    11. Lu Zhang & Howard Kung & Hang Bai, 2013. ""Shooting" the CAPM," 2013 Meeting Papers 905, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
    13. Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
    14. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen, 2016. "Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution," CREATES Research Papers 2016-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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