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Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models

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  • STEFAN NAGEL
  • KENNETH J. SINGLETON

Abstract

We find that several recently proposed consumption-based models of stock returns, when evaluated using an optimal set of managed portfolios and the associated model-implied conditional moment restrictions, fail to capture key features of risk premiums in equity markets. To arrive at these conclusions, we construct an optimal GMM estimator for models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a conditionally affine function of a set of priced risk factors. Further, for the (often relevant) case where a researcher is proposing a generalized SDF relative to some null model, we show that there is an optimal choice of managed portfolios to use in testing the null against the proposed alternative.
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  • Stefan Nagel & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 873-909, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:66:y:2011:i:3:p:873-909
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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Rudolf F. & Chow, Victor K., 2013. "Orthogonalized factors and systematic risk decomposition," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 175-187.
    2. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2013. "Chi-squared tests for evaluation and comparison of asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 108-125.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    4. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sentana, Enrique, 2012. "Underidentification?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 256-280.
    6. Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2016. "Duality in mean-variance frontiers with conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 762-785.
    7. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
    8. Yan Li & Liangjun Su & Yuewu Xu, 2015. "A Combined Approach to the Inference of Conditional Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 203-220, April.
    9. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2015. "Jackknife model averaging for quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 40-58.
    10. Kang, Hankil & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2013. "Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 122-135.
    11. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Estimation of Jump Tails," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1727-1783.
    12. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2014. "Benchmark models of expected returns in U.K. portfolio performance: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-46.
    13. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    14. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ronchetti, Diego, 2013. "Semi-parametric estimation of American option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 57-82.
    15. Li, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2011. "Testing conditional factor models: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 972-992.
    16. Schneider, Paul, 2015. "Generalized risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 487-504.
    17. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    18. Huang, Lin & Wang, Zijun, 2014. "Is the investment factor a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities? The US and international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 219-232.
    19. Galvani, Valentina & Gubellini, Stefano, 2013. "Mean–variance dominant trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 142-150.
    20. Aono, Kohei & Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2013. "The consumption–wealth ratio, real estate wealth, and the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 39-51.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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