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Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests

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  • Lu Zhang
  • Murillo Campello
  • Long Chen

Abstract

We use yield spreads to construct ex-ante returns on corporate securities, and then use the ex-ante returns in asset pricing assets. Differently from the standard approach, our tests do not use ex-post average returns as a proxy for expected returns. We find that the market beta plays a much more important role in the cross-section of expected returns than previously reported. The expected value premium is significantly positive and countercyclical. We find no evidence of ex-ante positive momentum profits.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lu Zhang & Murillo Campello & Long Chen, 2005. "Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:x:19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jäckel, Christoph, 2013. "Model uncertainty and expected return proxies," MPRA Paper 51978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    3. Chen, Long & Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "The expected value premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 269-280, February.
    4. Baek, Seungho & Bilson, John F.O., 2015. "Size and value risk in financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 295-326.
    5. Hett, Florian & Kasinger, Johannes, 2017. "Undermined market discipline: The role of bank rescues and bailout expectations," SAFE Policy Letters 59, Goethe University Frankfurt, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe.
    6. Robert Amano & Malik Shukayev, 2012. "Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1475-1505, December.
    7. repec:eee:jbfina:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:19-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bradley, Daniel & Pantzalis, Christos & Yuan, Xiaojing, 2016. "Policy risk, corporate political strategies, and the cost of debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 254-275.
    9. Anginer, Deniz & Yildizhan, Celim, 2009. "Is there a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross Section of Equity Returns," MPRA Paper 53885, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Apr 2013.
    10. Füss, Roland & Gehrig, Thomas & Rindler, Philipp B, 2011. "Scattered Trust - Did the 2007-08 financial crisis change risk perceptions?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Eugene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2014. "The intertemporal risk-return relation: A bivariate model approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 158-181.
    13. van Zundert, Jeroen, 2018. "Empirical studies on the cross-section of corporate bond and stock markets," Other publications TiSEM 338205fc-a031-4e06-a636-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Huang, Lin & Wu, Jia & Zhang, Rui, 2014. "Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-116.
    15. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:635-651 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dötz, Niko, 2014. "Decomposition of country-specific corporate bond spreads," Discussion Papers 37/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Hernán Ortiz-Molina & Gordon M. Phillips, 2010. "Asset Liquidity and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 15992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
    19. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2016. "Momentum and downside risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 104-118.
    20. Tobias Schlueter & Soenke Sievers, 2014. "Determinants of market beta: the impacts of firm-specific accounting figures and market conditions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 535-570, April.
    21. Florian Hett & Alexander Schmidt, 2013. "Bank Bailouts and Market Discipline: How Bailout Expectations Changed During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Aug 2013.
    22. Long Chen & Hui Guo & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Equity market volatility and expected risk premium," Working Papers 2006-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Eugene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing ; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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