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Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns

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  • Craig Burnside

Abstract

When excess returns are used to estimate linear stochastic discount factor (SDF) models, researchers often adopt a normalization of the SDF that sets its mean to 1, or one that sets its intercept to 1. These normalizations are often treated as equivalent, but they are subtly different both in population, and in finite samples. Standard asymptotic inference relies on rank conditions that differ across the two normalizations, and which can fail to differing degrees. I first establish that failure of the rank conditions is a genuine concern for many well known SDF models in the literature. I also describe how failure of the rank conditions can affect inference, both in population and in finite samples. I propose using tests of the rank conditions not only as a diagnostic device, but also for model reduction. I show that this model reduction procedure has desirable size and power properties in a Monte Carlo experiment with a calibrated model.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig Burnside, 2010. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 16634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16634
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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    2. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2017. "Too Good to Be True? Fallacies in Evaluating Risk Factor Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Alexis Akira Toda & Kieran James Walsh, 2017. "Fat tails and spurious estimation of consumption‐based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1156-1177, September.
    4. Ahn, Seung C. & Perez, M. Fabricio & Gadarowski, Christopher, 2013. "Two-pass estimation of risk premiums with multicollinear and near-invariant betas," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Frank Windmeijer, 2018. "Testing Over- and Underidentification in Linear Models, with Applications to Dynamic Panel Data and Asset-Pricing Models," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/696, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    6. Craig Burnside, 2011. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3456-3476, December.
    7. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Inference on Risk Premia in the Presence of Omitted Factors," NBER Working Papers 23527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Khalaf, Lynda & Schaller, Huntley, 2016. "Identification and inference in two-pass asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 165-177.
    9. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2017. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," CESifo Working Paper Series 6391, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Manresa, Elena & Pe�aranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2017. "Empirical Evaluation of Overspecified Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 12085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Jean-Marie Dufour & Alain Trognon & Purevdorj Tuvaandorj, 2017. "Invariant tests based on M -estimators, estimating functions, and the generalized method of moments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 182-204, March.
    12. Craig Burnside, 2011. "Carry Trades and Risk," NBER Working Papers 17278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schindler, Felix & Sebastian, Steffen & Theissen, Erik, 2013. "GDP mimicking portfolios and the cross-section of stock returns," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-026, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    14. Roberto Steri, 2015. "Collateral-Based Asset Pricing," 2015 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Alex R. Horenstein, 2017. "Betting Against Alpha," Working Papers 2017-13, University of Miami, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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