Model Comparison Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance
Although it is of interest to test whether or not a particular asset pricing model is literally true, a more useful task for empirical researchers is to determine how wrong a model is and to compare the performance of competing asset pricing models. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to test whether or not two competing linear asset pricing models have the same Hansen-Jagannathan distance. We show that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic depends on whether the competing models are correctly specified or misspecified, and on whether the competing models are nested or non-nested. In addition, given the increasing interest in misspecified models, we propose a simple methodology for computing the standard errors of the estimated stochastic discount factor parameters that are robust to model misspecification. Using monthly data on 25 size and book-to-market ranked portfolios and the one-month T-bill, we show that the commonly used returns and factors are, for the most part, too noisy for us to conclude that one model is superior to the other models in terms of Hansen-Jagannathan distance. Specifically, there is little evidence that conditional and intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-type specifications outperform the simple unconditional CAPM. In addition, we show that many of the macroeconomic factors commonly used in the literature are no longer priced once potential model misspecification is taken into account. The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: firstname.lastname@example.org, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 22 (2009)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.|
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www4.oup.co.uk/revfin/subinfo/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2000.
"Evaluating the Specification Errors of Asset Pricing Models,"
NBER Working Papers
7661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999.
"Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, 08.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Lettau, 2001.
"Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996.
"The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns,"
208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Campbell, John Y, 1996.
"Understanding Risk and Return,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
- Campbell, John, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Scholarly Articles 3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Understanding Risk and Return," NBER Working Papers 4554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Understanding Risk and Return," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1711, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003.
"The large sample behaviour of the generalized method of moments estimator in misspecified models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 361-394, June.
- Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA.
- Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2008.
"Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 816-838, December.
- Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2006. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995.
"Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-74.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Kubota, Keiichi & Takehara, Hitoshi, 1998.
"Relationship between Labor-Income Risk and Average Return: Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 319-47, July.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Keiichi Kubota & Hitoshi Takehara, 1997. "Relationship between labor-income risk and average return: empirical evidence from the Japanese stock market," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, 02.
- Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:22:y:2009:i:9:p:3449-3490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.