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The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Comment

  • Craig Burnside

Lustig and Verdelhan (2007) argue that the excess returns to borrowing US dollars and lending in foreign currency "compensate US investors for taking on more US consumption growth risk," yet the stochastic discount factor corresponding to their benchmark model is approximately uncorrelated with the returns they study. Hence, one cannot reject the null hypothesis that their model explains none of the cross sectional variation of the expected returns. Given this finding, and other evidence, I argue that the forward premium puzzle remains a puzzle. (JEL: C58, E21, F31, G11, G12)

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 7 (December)
Pages: 3456-76

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:7:p:3456-76
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  1. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Raymond Kan & Chu Zhang, 1999. "Two-Pass Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Useless Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 203-235, 02.
  3. A. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2010. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Working Papers 10-44, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  5. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1998. "An Asymptotic Theory for Estimating Beta-Pricing Models Using Cross-Sectional Regression," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1285-1309, 08.
  6. Craig Burnside, 2010. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 16634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
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