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Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?

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Listed:
  • A. Craig Burnside
  • Martin Eichenbaum
  • Isaac Kleshchelski
  • Sergio T. Rebelo

Abstract

We study the properties of the carry trade, a currency speculation strategy in which an investor borrows low-interest-rate currencies and lends high-interest-rate currencies. This strategy generates payoffs which are on average large and uncorrelated with traditional risk factors. We investigate whether these payoffs reflect a peso problem. We argue that they do. We reach this conclusion by analyzing the payoffs to the hedged carry trade, in which an investor uses currency options to protect himself from the downside risk from large, adverse movements in exchange rates

Suggested Citation

  • A. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2010. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Working Papers 10-44, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:10-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    2. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    3. Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-Quality Data Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(216), pages 429-438, November.
    4. A. Craig Burnside, 2007. "Empirical Asset Pricing and Statistical Power in the Presence of Weak Risk Factors," NBER Working Papers 13357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-370, April.
    6. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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