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Decomposing real and nominal yield curves

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We present an affine term structure model for the joint pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and Treasury yield curves that adjusts for TIPS? relative illiquidity. Our estimation using linear regressions is computationally very fast and can accommodate unspanned factors. The baseline specification with six principal components extracted from Treasury and TIPS yields, in combination with a liquidity factor, generates negligibly small pricing errors for both real and nominal yields. Model-implied expected inflation provides a better prediction of actual inflation than breakeven inflation. The value of the deflation floor calculated from the model is generally small in magnitude, but spiked during the recent crisis.

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  • Michael Abrahams & Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Staff Reports 570, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:570
    Note: Previous title: “Pricing TIPS and Treasuries with Linear Regressions”
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TIPS; break-evens; expected inflation; inflation risk premium; affine term-structure model; liquidity risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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