Decomposing real and nominal yield curves
We present an affine term structure model for the joint pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and Treasury yield curves that adjusts for TIPS’ relative illiquidity. Our estimation using linear regressions is computationally very fast and can accommodate unspanned factors. The baseline specification with six principal components extracted from Treasury and TIPS yields, in combination with a liquidity factor, generates negligibly small pricing errors for both real and nominal yields. Model-implied expected inflation provides a better prediction of actual inflation than breakeven inflation. The value of the deflation floor calculated from the model is generally small in magnitude, but spiked during the recent crisis.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:||01 Feb 2015|
|Note:||Previous title: “Pricing TIPS and Treasuries with Linear Regressions”|
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- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009.
"Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, 09.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008.
"Pricing the term structure with linear regressions,"
340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
- Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Joseph Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2012.
"Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1588-1629.
- Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2011. "Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: evidence from inflation swaps," Working Paper 1107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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