Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields
We use an arbitrage-free term structure model with spanned stochastic volatility to determine the value of the deflation protection option embedded in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The model accurately prices the deflation protection option prior to the financial crisis when its value was near zero; at the peak of the crisis in late 2008 when deflationary concerns spiked sharply; and in the post-crisis period. During 2009, the average value of this option at the five-year maturity was 41 basis points on a par-yield basis.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Philippe Mueller & Mikhail Chernov, 2008.
"The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations,"
2008 Meeting Papers
346, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jens H.E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011.
"Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields,"
Working Paper Series
2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
- Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2014. "Can spanned term structure factors drive stochastic yield volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010.
"Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, 09.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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