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Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Jose A. Lopez
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

We use an arbitrage-free term structure model with spanned stochastic volatility to determine the value of the deflation protection option embedded in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The model accurately prices the deflation protection option prior to the financial crisis when its value was near zero; at the peak of the crisis in late 2008 when deflationary concerns spiked sharply; and in the post-crisis period. During 2009, the average value of this option at the five-year maturity was 41 basis points on a par-yield basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2012-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    3. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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    6. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2010. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 603-653, April.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    8. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    9. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    10. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 16892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
    12. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    13. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    14. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    15. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    2. Rodrigo Guimarães, 2012. "What accounts for the fall in UK ten-year government bond yields?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 213-223.
    3. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    4. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Franck Moraux & Olga Pakulyak, 2025. "How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    6. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    8. Park, Alex & Lappas, Petros, 2017. "Evaluating demand charge reduction for commercial-scale solar PV coupled with battery storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 523-532.
    9. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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