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Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields

Author

Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Jose A. Lopez
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

We use an arbitrage-free term structure model with spanned stochastic volatility to determine the value of the deflation protection option embedded in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The model accurately prices the deflation protection option prior to the financial crisis when its value was near zero; at the peak of the crisis in late 2008 when deflationary concerns spiked sharply; and in the post-crisis period. During 2009, the average value of this option at the five-year maturity was 41 basis points on a par-yield basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2012-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    2. Park, Alex & Lappas, Petros, 2017. "Evaluating demand charge reduction for commercial-scale solar PV coupled with battery storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 523-532.
    3. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    4. Rodrigo Guimarães, 2012. "What accounts for the fall in UK ten-year government bond yields?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 213-223.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    7. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    9. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    10. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Franck Moraux & Olga Pakulyak, 2025. "How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.

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