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Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields

Author

Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Jose A. Lopez
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

We use an arbitrage-free term structure model with spanned stochastic volatility to determine the value of the deflation protection option embedded in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The model accurately prices the deflation protection option prior to the financial crisis when its value was near zero; at the peak of the crisis in late 2008 when deflationary concerns spiked sharply; and in the post-crisis period. During 2009, the average value of this option at the five-year maturity was 41 basis points on a par-yield basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2012-07
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2012/wp12-07bk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    2. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Alex & Lappas, Petros, 2017. "Evaluating demand charge reduction for commercial-scale solar PV coupled with battery storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 523-532.
    2. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    3. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    4. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Economics Working Paper Archive 600, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    5. GuimarĂ£es , Rodrigo, 2012. "What accounts for the fall in UK ten-year government bond yields?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 213-223.
    6. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Shultz, Patrick, 2017. "Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Keywords

    Deflation (Finance) ; Inflation-indexed bonds - United States;

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