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Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields

  • Bruno Feunou
  • Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. We combine nominal yields with surveys of inflation forecasts within a no-arbitrage model where conditional expectations are latent but spanned by the history of the observed data, analog to a GARCH model for the conditional variance. The filtering problem is numerically trivial and we conduct a battery of out-of-sample comparisons. Our favored model matches the quarterly inflation forecasts from surveys and uses the information in yields to produce the best monthly forecasts. Moreover, we restrict the distribution of the inflation Sharpe ratios to achieve economically reasonable estimates of the inflation risk premium and of the real rates. We find that the inflation risk premium (i) is positive on average, (ii) rises when the unemployment rate increases and (iii) when the level of interest rates decreases. Hence, real yields are more pro-cyclical than nominal yields due to variations of the inflation risk premiums.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 12-37.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-37
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  17. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
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  21. Ajello, Andrea & Benzoni, Luca & Chyruk, Olena, 2012. "Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP-2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 19 Dec 2012.
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  24. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
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