IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks

  • Gregory H. Bauer
  • Antonio Diez de los Rios

We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate. We show that it is important to impose restrictions (including global asset pricing, carry trade fundamentals and maximal Sharpe ratios) on the prices of risk to obtain plausible decompositions of forward curves. The forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the restricted model match those from international survey data. Unspanned macroeconomic variables are important drivers of international term and foreign exchange risk premia as well as expected exchange rate changes.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 12-5.

in new window

Length: 90 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-5
Contact details of provider: Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
  4. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
  5. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2011. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 8503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
  7. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Albert Lee Chun, 2005. "Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy," Finance 0512006, EconWPA.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  12. Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Working Papers 06.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  13. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
  14. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
  15. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
  16. Refet S. G�rkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-67, June.
  17. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, . "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  18. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 429-457.
  19. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO.
  20. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
  21. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
  22. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, 09.
  24. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
  26. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
  27. Geert Bekaert & Min Wei & Yuhang Xing, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. David Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the conundrum," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Term premia and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  30. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," Working Papers 1195, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  31. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  32. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  33. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
  34. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, 09.
  35. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2011. "Global bond risk premiums," Staff Reports 499, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  36. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2008. "McCallum Rules, Exchange Rates, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 08-43, Bank of Canada.
  37. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Ruslan Bikbov & Mikhail Chernov, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Post-Print hal-00732517, HAL.
  39. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2006. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 06-27, Bank of Canada.
  40. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing (Cynthia) Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  42. Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "An Admissible Affine Model for Joint Term Structure Dynamics of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie001, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
  43. Richard Dennis & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2003. "Finance and macroeconomics," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may2.
  44. Anderson, Bing & Hammond, Peter J. & Ramezani, Cyrus A., 2010. "Affine Models of the Joint Dynamics of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1341-1365, October.
  45. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.