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An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks

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  • Gregory Bauer
  • Antonio Diez de los Rios

Abstract

We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate. We show that it is important to impose restrictions (including global asset pricing, carry trade fundamentals and maximal Sharpe ratios) on the prices of risk to obtain plausible decompositions of forward curves. The forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the restricted model match those from international survey data. Unspanned macroeconomic variables are important drivers of international term and foreign exchange risk premia as well as expected exchange rate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
    3. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    4. Mikhail Chernov & Drew D. Creal, 2018. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 25206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    6. Antonio Diez de Los Rios, 2015. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 282-295, April.
    7. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Tamon Takamura, 2016. "Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits," Discussion Papers 16-17, Bank of Canada.
    8. Russell Barnett & Konrad Zmitrowicz, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium," Discussion Papers 18-7, Bank of Canada.
    9. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    10. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    11. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 17-26, Bank of Canada.
    12. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    13. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    14. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
    15. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    16. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    17. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    18. Lauren Stagnol, 2019. "Extracting global factors from local yield curves," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 341-350, September.
    19. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2016. "Overseas unspanned factors and domestic bond returns," Bank of England working papers 618, Bank of England.
    21. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & de Sola Perea, Maite, 2015. "A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 308-325.
    22. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    23. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Miguel Molico & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research," Discussion Papers 15-7, Bank of Canada.
    24. Gregory Bauer, 2014. "International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums," Staff Working Papers 14-54, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Exchange rates; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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