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Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy

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  • GLENN D. RUDEBUSCH

Abstract

During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro‐finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage‐free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage‐free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro‐finance investigations.

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  • Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:s1:p:25-52
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02198.x
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    7. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    8. Kozicki, Sharon, 2012. "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-28.
    9. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.
    11. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    14. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    15. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Joint estimation of multiple network Granger causal models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 120-133.
    17. Lauren Stagnol, 2019. "Extracting global factors from local yield curves," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 341-350, September.
    18. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    19. Lauren Stagnol, 2017. "Introducing global term structure in a risk parity framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    21. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    22. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.

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