IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/362.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The term structure of inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Adrian
  • Hao Wu

Abstract

We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model not only to yields, but also to the yields' variance-covariance matrix, thus increasing identification power. We find that model-implied inflation expectations can differ substantially from break-even inflation rates when market volatility is high. Our model's ability to be updated weekly makes it suitable for real-time monetary policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:362
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr362.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr362.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "A three-factor econometric model of the U.S. term structure," Staff Reports 19, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
    3. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    7. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    8. David Barr & John Campbell, "undated". "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    9. Martin D. D. Evans, 2003. "Real risk, inflation risk, and the term structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 345-389, April.
    10. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    11. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    12. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    13. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 1983. "Inflationary Finance under Discretion and Rules," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Beechey, Meredith J. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 535-544, May.
    16. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    17. J. Benson Durham, 2006. "An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    19. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
    20. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
    21. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    22. Robert Elsasser & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Treasury inflation-indexed debt: a review of the U.S. experience," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 47-63.
    23. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2002. "The bond/old-bond spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 463-506.
    24. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    25. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
    26. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
    3. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    4. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    5. Güler, Mustafa Haluk & Keleş, Gürsu & Polat, Tandoğan, 2017. "An empirical decomposition of the liquidity premium in breakeven inflation rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-192.
    6. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    7. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    12. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, 2022. "The common and specific components of inflation expectations across European countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 553-580, February.
    14. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    15. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    16. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2010. "Actualización de la descomposición del BEI cuando se dispone de nueva información," Borradores de Economia 620, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
    18. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Soper, Carolyne, 2019. "Market risk and market-implied inflation expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2010. "Actualización de la descomposición del BEI cuando se dispone de nueva información," Borradores de Economia 7333, Banco de la Republica.
    20. Strohsal, Till & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-48.
    21. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    22. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, "undated". "Inflation Co-movement across Countries in Multi-maturity Term Structure: An Arbitrage-Free Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    23. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2017. "Volatility of commodity futures prices and market-implied inflation expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 133-141.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    2. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    3. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
    5. Andrea Berardi, 2013. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Working Papers 27/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    6. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
    7. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    8. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
    9. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    10. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    11. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    12. Chen, Ren-Raw & Liu, Bo & Cheng, Xiaolin, 2010. "Pricing the term structure of inflation risk premia: Theory and evidence from TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 702-721, September.
    13. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    15. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
    16. Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley Zin, 2017. "Term Premium Dynamics and the Taylor Rule," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 1-39, December.
    17. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
    18. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    19. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation risk; Asset pricing; Financial markets; Stochastic analysis;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.