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A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model

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  • José Valentim Machado Vicente

Abstract

In this paper I estimate the inflation risk premium (IRP) using a low- dimensional arbitrage free dynamic model through a novel strategy. Instead of modeling the nominal and real yields jointly, I make assumptions about the short-term inflation rate. More specifically, I assume it follows a Gaussian process. This framework has a closed-form expression for IRP. Since inflation yields are not observed, to estimate the model parameters I approximate them by the break-even inflation rate. This approximation works well because the convexity correction is very small. I find the estimated IRP is strongly correlated with those obtained using surveys or more complex models. Therefore, I provide an easier procedure to obtain IRP, avoiding the cumbersome estimation process of high-order models.

Suggested Citation

  • José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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