Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves
This paper analyses the UK interest rate term structure over the period since October 1992, when the United Kingdom adopted an explicit inflation target, using an affine term structure model estimated using both government bond yields and survey data. The model imposes no-arbitrage restrictions across nominal and real yields, which enables interest rates to be decomposed into expected real policy rates, expected inflation, real term premia and inflation risk premia. The model is used to shed light on major developments over the period, including the impact of Bank of England independence and the low real bond yield 'conundrum'.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008.
"Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model,"
Working Paper Series
2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S111-S126, October.
- Pennacchi, George G, 1991. "Identifying the Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Evidence Using Survey Data," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 53-86.
- Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
- Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008.
"The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
- Almeida, Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de & Vicente, José, 2007. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 657, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Don H. Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005.
"Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Don H. Kim, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 474, Society for Computational Economics.
- Martin Evans, 2002.
"Real Risk, Inflation Risk, and the Term Structure,"
gueconwpa~02-02-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001.
"Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
- Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
- Martin D. D. Evans, 1998. "Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 187-218, 02.
- Joyce, Michael & Kaminska, Iryna & Lildholdt, Peter, 2008. "Understanding the real rate conundrum: an application of no-arbitrage finance models to the UK real yield curve," Bank of England working papers 358, Bank of England.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003.
"A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
- de Jong, Frank, 2000.
"Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
- de Jong, Frank, 1999. "Time-series and Cross-section Information in Affine Term Structure Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007.
"Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, 02.
- Chiona Balfoussia & Michael Wickens, 2004. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1329, CESifo Group Munich.
- Michael R. Wickens & Chiona Balfoussia, 2004. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," CEIS Research Paper 61, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Eli M. Remolona & Michael Wickens & Frank F. Gong, 1998.
"What was the market's view of U.K. monetary policy? Estimating inflation risk and expected inflation with indexed bonds,"
57, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jacobs, Mike & Remolona, Eli & Wickens, Michael R., 1998. "What was the Market's View of UK Monetary Policy? Estimating Inflation Risk and Expected Inflation with Indexed Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 2022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
- Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England.
- Brian P. Sack & Robert Elsasser, 2004. "Treasury inflation-indexed debt: a review of the U.S. experience," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 47-63.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:281-294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.