An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates
This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.
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| Length: | |
| Date of creation: | 2005 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-33 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/ More information through EDIRC
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| Order Information: | Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008.
"A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy,"
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- Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Working Paper Series 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004.
"Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002.
"Bond Risk Premia,"
NBER Working Papers
9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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