An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"Bond Risk Premia,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002.
"Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2000. "Term premia and interest rate forecasts in affine models," Working Paper Series 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004.
"Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Langetieg, Terence C, 1980. "A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 71-97, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006.
"The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective,"
Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield \"conundrum\" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007.
"Cracking the Conundrum,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
- David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," NBER Working Papers 13419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the conundrum," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Working Papers 07-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
- Moench, Emanuel, 2008.
"Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
- Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 544, European Central Bank.
- Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
- Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016.
"Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
- Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2015. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 752, Central Bank of Chile.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012.
"Macroeconomics and the Term Structure,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
- Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014.
"Information In The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 42-64, January.
- Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Business and Economics Working Papers 132, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2014. "Information in the yield curve: A macro-finance approach," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2014007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1393-1436, June.
- Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012.
"Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
- Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2009. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 699, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021.
"Reconstructing the yield curve,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
- Yan Liu & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Reconstructing the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 27266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010.
"Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
- Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan & Review Financial, 2007. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2614, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jun 2009.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006.
"What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
- Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2017.
"Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del Gobierno colombiano,"
Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 78, February.
- Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 903, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandía & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 13700, Banco de la Republica.
- Joyce, Michael & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008.
"Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments,"
Bank of England working papers
356, Bank of England.
- Joyce, Michael A. S. & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008. "Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments," Working Paper Series 978, European Central Bank.
- P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015.
"Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2011.
"An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1893-1916, December.
- Hans DEWACHTER & Leonardo IANIA, 2009. "An extended macro-finance model with financial factors," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces09.19, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2012. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2012001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2009. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," MPRA Paper 18840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania, 2010. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," CESifo Working Paper Series 2950, CESifo.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2009. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," MPRA Paper 17634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019.
"Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
- Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2015. "Nonlinearity and flight to safety in the risk-return trade-off for stocks and bonds," Staff Reports 723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Vogt, Erik, 2016. "Nonlinearity and Flight-to-Safety in the Risk-Return Tradeoff for Stocks and Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 11401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
More about this item
Keywords
Interest rates; Econometric models;NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-FMK-2005-10-04 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-10-04 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.