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Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia: Evidence from Chile

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  • Luis Ceballos
  • Alberto Naudon
  • Damián Romero

Abstract

The downward trend exhibited in Chile's nominal 10-year interest rate since 2003 has been a common pattern shared by other developed and developing economies. To understand the behavior of the nominal yield curve in Chile, we rely on an affine dynamic term structure model (DTMS) which allows to decompose the term structure into the expected short-term premium (related to the monetary policy expectation) and a term premia. We show that most of the fall of long-term interest rates as well as its dynamics are related to the term premia rather than the expected short-term interest rate. With this, we report that the term premia is driven primarily by nominal uncertainty, i.e. the uncertainty for expected inflation two years ahead and the US term premia.

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  • Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2015. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 752, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:752
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Beyzaga E. & Luis Ceballos S., 2017. "Compensación inflacionaria y premios por riesgo: evidencia para Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(2), pages 150-165, August.
    2. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    3. Sebastián Claro & Carola Moreno, 2015. "Long-term rates and the term premium: evidence from Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 97-112, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    8. Luis Ceballos & Jorge A. Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2017. "Nuevas estimaciones de la tasa real neutral de Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 120-143, December.
    9. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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