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Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks

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  • SCOTT JOSLIN
  • MARCEL PRIEBSCH
  • KENNETH J. SINGLETON

Abstract

type="main"> This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by output and inflation risks that are unspanned by (imperfectly correlated with) information about the shape of the yield curve. Our model reveals that, between 1985 and 2007, these risks accounted for a large portion of the variation in forward terms premiums, and there was pronounced cyclical variation in the market prices of level and slope risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:69:y:2014:i:3:p:1197-1233
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jofi.12131
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