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A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models

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  • Antonio Diez de los Rios

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. This new estimator is an asymptotic least squares estimator defined by the no-arbitrage conditions upon which these models are built. We discuss some efficiency considerations of this estimator, and show that it is asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation. Further, we note that our estimator remains easy-to-compute and asymptotically efficient in a variety of situations in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability. We provide an empirical application in the context of the Canadian bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. David J. Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
    2. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
    3. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 17/212, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Anh Le & Bruno Feunou & Christian Lundblad & Jean-SĂ©bastien Fontaine, 2015. "Tractable Term-Structure Models and the Zero Lower Bound," Staff Working Papers 15-46, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Econometric and statistical methods; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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