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A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models

  • Antonio Diez de los Rios

This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. This new estimator is an asymptotic least squares estimator defined by the no-arbitrage conditions upon which these models are built. We discuss some efficiency considerations of this estimator, and show that it is asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation. Further, we note that our estimator remains easy-to-compute and asymptotically efficient in a variety of situations in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability. We provide an empirical application in the context of the Canadian bond market.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/wp2013-10.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 13-10.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-10
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  2. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
  3. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
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  5. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  6. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  9. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kleibergen, Frank, 2009. "Tests of risk premia in linear factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 149-173, April.
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  12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521405515 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Leandro M. Magnusson, 2008. "Inference in Limited Dependent Variable Models Robust to Weak Identification," Working Papers 0801, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2009.
  16. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2009. "Identification-Robust Minimum Distance Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 0904, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  17. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
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  20. Gregory R. Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the Term Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
  21. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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  23. David J. Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
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  25. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1996. "Unit roots and the estimation of interest rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 215-238, June.
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