International evidence on bond risk premia
This paper revisits the study of time-varying excess bond returns in international bond markets. Using newly available yield curve data from 10 different countries with independent monetary policy, I test the robustness of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005). For most countries in my sample, I find more modest predictive power for forward rates than originally found by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) for the US. Their single-factor model captures well the predictability in international data, and this factor also tends to have a tent-shape in most countries of my sample. CP factors are more idiosyncratic across countries than yields or forward rates. Finally, I show that the recent financial crisis has significantly affected the predictability of excess bond returns.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li & Vivian Z. Yue, 2007.
"Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
07-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li & Vivian Z. Yue, 2007. "Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach," NBER Working Papers 13588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2007. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010.
"Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
- Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan & Review Financial, 2007. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2614, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jun 2009.
- Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2006. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 753-795.
- Nippani, Srinivas & Smith, Stanley D., 2010. "The increasing default risk of US Treasury securities due to the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2472-2480, October.
- Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
- Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2004.
"Regime Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 396-409, October.
- Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2003. "Regime-shifts, risk premiums in the term structure, and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007.
"The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002.
"Bond Risk Premia,"
NBER Working Papers
9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
- Gerald P. Dwyer & Paula A. Tkac, 2009.
"The financial crisis of 2008 in fixed income markets,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2009-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Dwyer, Gerald P. & Tkac, Paula, 2009. "The financial crisis of 2008 in fixed-income markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1293-1316, December.
- John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009.
"Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds,"
NBER Working Papers
14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis M. Viceira & Adi Sunderam & John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kessler, Stephan & Scherer, Bernd, 2009. "Varying risk premia in international bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1361-1375, August.
- Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:174-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.