IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v90y2013i1p17-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International Bond Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Dahlquist, Magnus
  • Hasseltoft, Henrik

Abstract

We find evidence for time-varying risk premia across international bond markets. Local and global factors jointly predict returns. The global factor is closely linked to US bond risk premia and international business cycles. Movements in the global factor seem to drive risk premia and expected short-term interest rates in opposite directions. We consider an affine term-structure model in which risk premia are driven by one local and one global factor. Shocks to these factors account for only a small fraction of yield variance and the cross-section of yields conveys little information about the factors. Finally, correlations between international bond risk premia have increased over time, suggesting an increase in integration between markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:90:y:2013:i:1:p:17-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.11.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199612002024
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    2. Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2003. "Common factors in international bond returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 629-656, October.
    3. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    4. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    5. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
    6. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    7. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
    8. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
    9. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Short Run Bond Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp686, Financial Markets Group.
    10. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
    11. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia, 2012. "Bond Liquidity Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1207-1254.
    12. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2013. "The European Union, the Euro, and equity market integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 583-603.
    14. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    15. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    16. Ilmanen, Antti, 1995. " Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-506, June.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    18. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    20. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    21. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    22. Kessler, Stephan & Scherer, Bernd, 2009. "Varying risk premia in international bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1361-1375, August.
    23. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    24. Driessen, J.J.A.G. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T.E., 2003. "Common factors in international bond returns," Other publications TiSEM 06a83942-b625-4d3c-808c-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    25. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    26. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
    27. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
    28. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    29. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2007. "Habit Formation and Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 3009-3063, December.
    30. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    31. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    32. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 241-270.
    33. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    34. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
    35. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
    36. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    37. Gregory R. Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the Term Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
    38. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
    39. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    40. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    41. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    42. Greg Duffee, 2010. "Sharpe ratios in term structure models," Economics Working Paper Archive 575, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    43. Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
    44. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    45. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. repec:hal:journl:peer-00732517 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
    48. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2012. "Stocks, Bonds, and Long-Run Consumption Risks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(02), pages 309-332, June.
    49. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    2. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    3. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2016. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 16-38, Bank of Canada.
    4. Dahlquist, Magnus & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2018. "A Review of Norges Bank's Active Management of the Government Pension Fund Global," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2018/1, University of Stavanger.
    5. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Mayer, Manuel & Zechner, Josef, 2013. "Sovereign bond risk premiums," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/28, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 19623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary independence," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 213-225 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2016. "Overseas unspanned factors and domestic bond returns," Bank of England working papers 618, Bank of England.
    9. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:115-136 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2017. "No-arbitrage Determinants of Japanese Government Bond Yield and Credit Spread Curves," Discussion papers 17104, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Risk Premium of Gold," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-616, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    14. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 17/212, International Monetary Fund.
    15. repec:gam:jrisks:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:13:d:70032 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Out-of-sample bond risk premium predictions: A global common factor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 155-173.
    17. David Backus & Nina Boyarchenko & Mikhail Chernov, 2016. "Term Structures of Asset Prices and Returns," NBER Working Papers 22162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Investor sentiment and bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 206-233.
    19. repec:eee:jimfin:v:83:y:2018:i:c:p:44-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lauren Stagnol, 2017. "Introducing global term structure in a risk parity framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    21. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," Working Papers id:12586, eSocialSciences.
    22. Irena Vodenska & Alexander P. Becker & Di Zhou & Dror Y. Kenett & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine model; Local and global factors; Time-varying risk premia;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:90:y:2013:i:1:p:17-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.