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International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors

  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Christopher Otrok
  • Charles H. Whiteman

The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. We find that region-specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity. We also document similarities and differences across regions, countries, and aggregates. (JEL F41, E32, C11, C32)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/000282803769206278
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1216-1239

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:4:p:1216-1239
Note: DOI: 10.1257/000282803769206278
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  1. Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
  3. Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H., 1996. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," Working Papers 96-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  4. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
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  8. Imbs, Jean, 1999. "Co-Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Crucini, Mario J, 1997. "Country Size and Economic Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 204-20, May.
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  14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head, 1996. "Common and Country-specific Fluctuations in Productivity, Investment, and the Current Account," Working Papers 931, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  19. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  21. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
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  23. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  24. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  31. Riezman, R.G. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "World Business Cycles," Working Papers 91-26, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  32. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589833 is not listed on IDEAS
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