International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors
The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. We find that region-specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity. We also document similarities and differences across regions, countries, and aggregates. (JEL F41, E32, C11, C32)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589826 is not listed on IDEAS
- Riezman, R.G. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "World Business Cycles," Working Papers 91-26, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989.
"International Business Cycles,"
7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- John Geweke, 1995.
"Monte Carlo simulation and numerical integration,"
192, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Head, Allen C., 1999.
"Common and country-specific fluctuations in productivity, investment, and the current account,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 423-451, December.
- Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head, 1996. "Common and Country-specific Fluctuations in Productivity, Investment, and the Current Account," Working Papers 931, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589833 is not listed on IDEAS
- Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994.
"Measuring World Business Cycles,"
902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, December.
- Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988.
"Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence,"
RCER Working Papers
140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allen C. Head, 1995. "Country Size, Aggregate Fluctuations, and International Risk Sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1096-1119, November.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997.
"International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April.
- Crucini, Mario J, 1997. "Country Size and Economic Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 204-20, May.
- Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1998.
"Historical Evidence on Business Cycles: The International Experience,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
255, Stockholm School of Economics.
- U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589819 is not listed on IDEAS
- Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
- Jean IMBS, 1998.
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998.
"Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Baxter, Marianne, 1991. "Business cycles, stylized facts, and the exchange rate regime: evidence from the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-88, March.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994.
"Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics,"
9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
- Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H., 1996.
"Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa,"
96-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
- Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:4:p:1216-1239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros)or (Michael P. Albert)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.