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  • Imbs, Jean

This paper provides novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization in business cycles. I find trade has surprisingly small quantitative effects. On the other hand, pairs of countries with higher aggregate income level experience significantly more synchronized business cycles, and this happens largely because they have similar sectoral production patterns. Geographic considerations do not matter systematically. The results hold for a large sample of countries with very different income levels, as well as within the OECD. They are robust to different filtering devices, across yearly and quarterly frequency and for a variety of data sources. These findings are interpreted in a model where international income disparities correspond to differences in production patterns, and thus to different degrees of exposure to common sectoral stochastic developments.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2267.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2267
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  1. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1998. "International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sectoral Model," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 60, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  2. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 1993. "Integration, Specialization and Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Wolfgang Keller, 1997. "Trade and Transmission of Technology," NBER Working Papers 6113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409.
  6. Baldwin, Richard & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 1998. "Global Income Divergence, Trade and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Nov 1998.
  8. Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "Trade and the Transmission of Technology," Development and Comp Systems 9609001, EconWPA.
  9. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles: Common Shocks or Transmission?," CEPR Discussion Papers 781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Robert Kollmann, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: the role of money and nominal rigidities," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7632, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  13. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  14. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," NBER Working Papers 5098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
  16. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "The correlation of productivity growth across regions and industries in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 437-443, March.
  17. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," IMF Working Papers 98/10, International Monetary Fund.
  19. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  20. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  21. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 1995. "Trade and fluctuations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1560, The World Bank.
  22. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  23. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  25. Fatas, Antonio, 1997. "EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 743-751, April.
  26. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the U.S," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10141, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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