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Co-Fluctuations

  • Imbs, Jean

This paper provides novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization in business cycles. I find trade has surprisingly small quantitative effects. On the other hand, pairs of countries with higher aggregate income level experience significantly more synchronized business cycles, and this happens largely because they have similar sectoral production patterns. Geographic considerations do not matter systematically. The results hold for a large sample of countries with very different income levels, as well as within the OECD. They are robust to different filtering devices, across yearly and quarterly frequency and for a variety of data sources. These findings are interpreted in a model where international income disparities correspond to differences in production patterns, and thus to different degrees of exposure to common sectoral stochastic developments.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2267.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2267
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  1. Keller, W., 1997. "Trade and the Transmission of Technology," Working papers 9620r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  8. Robert Kollmann, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: the role of money and nominal rigidities," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7632, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  13. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  15. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  16. Alan C. Stockman, 1987. "Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries," NBER Working Papers 2313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1995. "Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," NBER Working Papers 5272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Baxter, M., 1994. "International Trade and Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 390, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  22. Fatas, Antonio, 1997. "EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 743-751, April.
  23. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Nov 1998.
  24. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "The correlation of productivity growth across regions and industries in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 437-443, March.
  25. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 1995. "Trade and fluctuations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1560, The World Bank.
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