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A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone

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  • Salvador Barrios

    (CORE, UniversitÈ Catholique de Louvain)

  • Marius Br¸lhart
  • Robert J.R. Elliott
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

We examine the patterns and determinants of business cycle correlations among 11 UK regions and six euro-zone countries over the 1966-97 period, using the generalized method of moments to allow for sampling error in comparing estimated correlations. The British business cycle is found to be persistently out of phase with that of the main euro-zone economies, and the trend is towards lower correlations. We detect only minor cyclical heterogeneity among UK regions. Differences in sectoral specialization drive some of the asymmetry in GDP fluctuations, but they do not appear significant in explaining the observed reduction in UK-EU business cycle correlations over time. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester.

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  • Salvador Barrios & Marius Br¸lhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:71:y:2003:i:3:p:265-292
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    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Poncet & Jean Barthélemy, 2008. "Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d'activité en Chine," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 1-12.
    2. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 111, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    3. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
    4. J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005. "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.
    6. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Gadea, M. Dolores & Bandres, Eduardo, 2018. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," MPRA Paper 83964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    10. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Ben Gardiner & Peter Tyler, 2016. "How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 561-585, April.
    11. Christian Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders: What Are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 140-178, April.
    12. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2003. "A nation divided? Price and output dynamics in English regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 651-677, May.
    13. Peter Hayes, 2005. "Estimating UK regional price indices, 1974-96," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 333-344.
    14. Bierbaumer-Polly, Jürgen & Huber, Peter & Huber, Petr, 2015. "The Impact of EU-Accession on Regional Business Cycle Synchronization and Sector Specialization," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113154, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
    16. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    17. Gabriele Tondl & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Regional growth cycle synchronisation with the Euro Area," Papers WP173, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working papers 2012-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    19. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    20. Iulia Siedschlag & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Regional output growth synchronisation with the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 203-221, May.
    21. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
    22. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2007. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 15-44, March.
    23. Longhi, C. & Musolesi, A. & Baumont, C., 2013. "Modeling the industrial dynamics of the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration: a semiparametric approach," Working Papers 2013-10, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    24. Salá Rios, Mercé & Farré Perdiguer, Mariona & Torres Solé, Teresa, 2011. "El ciclo económico de Cataluña. Un análisis de la simetría respecto a España y a la UEM/Catalonia's Business Cycle. An Analysis of the Symmetry in Relation to Spain and the EMU," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 913(24á.)-9, Diciembre.
    25. Svatopluk Kapounek & Zuzana Kucerova, 2018. "Historical Decoupling in the EU: Evidence from Time-Frequency Analysis," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2018-75, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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