IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Regionalization vs. Globalization

  • HIRATA Hideaki
  • Ayhan KOSE
  • Christopher OTROK

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960-2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles, especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/13e004.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 13004.

as
in new window

Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13004
Contact details of provider: Postal: 11th floor, Annex, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) 1-3-1, Kasumigaseki Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8901
Phone: +81-3-3501-1363
Fax: +81-3-3501-8577
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January.
  2. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Strobbe, Francesco & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: A View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2001. "Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-01-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Çigdem Akin & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Changing Nature of North-South Linkages; Stylized Facts and Explanations," IMF Working Papers 07/280, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bergman, U. Michael & Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1998. "Historical Evidence on Business Cycles: The International Experience," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 255, Stockholm School of Economics.
  7. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1999. "Is the EMU a viable common currency area? a VAR analysis of regional business cycles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-20.
  8. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, March.
  9. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
  10. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
  11. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Atilim Seymen, 2012. "Euro area business cycles," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-31.
  13. Sato, K. & Zhang, Z. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Identifying Shocks in Regionally Integrated East Asian Economies with Structural VAR and Block Exogeneity," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  14. Maria Bejan, 2011. "Trade Agreements and International Comovements: the Case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 667-685, October.
  15. Hideaki Hirata & Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(1), pages 5-34, February.
  16. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN," CEPR Discussion Papers 2411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Jansen, W. Jos & Stokman, Ad C.J., 2004. "Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement," Working Paper Series 0401, European Central Bank.
  18. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2003. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Economics Working Papers 924, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2004.
  20. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  21. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
  23. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2007. "A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan, but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-14, January.
  24. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?," NBER Working Papers 14558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
  26. Hans Genberg & Pierre L. Siklos, 2009. "Revisiting the Shocking Aspects of Asian Monetary Unification," Working Papers 192009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  27. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
  28. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  29. James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004. "Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  30. Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
  31. Scott Davis, 2011. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  32. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2010. "The endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area criteria in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 165-170, January.
  33. Klaus Weyerstrass & Bas Aarle & Marcus Kappler & Atilim Seymen, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with(in) the Euro Area: in Search of a ‘Euro Effect’," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 427-446, July.
  34. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Nobuaki Yamashita, 2005. "Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  35. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0587, European Central Bank.
  36. Ando, Mitsuyo, 2006. "Fragmentation and vertical intra-industry trade in East Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 257-281, December.
  37. Lee Chin & M. Azali, 2012. "Testing the validity of the monetary model for ASEAN with structural break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3229-3236, September.
  38. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
  39. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
  40. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2006. "Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 7, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
  41. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  42. Neaime Simon, 2005. "Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility in the MENA Region: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 59-83, December.
  43. Kwanho Shin & Chan-Hyun Sohn, 2006. "Trade and Financial Integration in East Asia: Effects on Co-movements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1649-1669, December.
  44. Hall, Viv B & McDermott, C John, 2011. "An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," Working Paper Series 1548, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  45. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
  46. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
  47. Michael Massmann & James Mitchell, 2004. "Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Euro Area Business Cycles Converging?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(3), pages 275-307.
  48. By Norman Loayza & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2001. "Comovements and Sectoral Interdependence: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia, and Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 7.
  49. Sørensen, Bent E & Wu, Yi-Tsung & Yosha, Oved & Zhu, Yu, 2005. "Home Bias and International Risk Sharing: Twin Puzzles Separated at Birth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5113, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2008. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 580, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  51. Michael Artis & Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2011. "What Drives Regional Business Cycles? The Role Of Common And Spatial Components," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(5), pages 1035-1044, 09.
  52. Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Pradhan, Mahmood & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "Have North-South growth linkages changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 791-808, May.
  53. Keith R. Phillips & Jesus Canas, 2004. "Business cycle coordination along the Texas-Mexico border," Working Papers 0502, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  54. Kumakura, Masanaga, 2006. "Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 622-645, October.
  55. Weber, Enzo, 2007. "Regional and Outward Economic Integration in South-East Asia," MPRA Paper 6136, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
  56. Lee Yu-Feng L, 2007. "Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, October.
  57. Lee, Jim, 2012. "Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 438-440.
  58. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Chiquiar, Daniel & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2005. "Trade and business-cycle synchronization: evidence from Mexican and U.S. manufacturing industries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 187-216, August.
  60. Koen De Backer & Norihiko Yamano, 2007. "The Measurement of Globalisation using International Input-Output Tables," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2007/8, OECD Publishing.
  61. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 303-323, November.
  62. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
  63. Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H., 1996. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," Working Papers 96-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  64. Selover, David D., 2004. "International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 57-83, March.
  65. Fiess, Norbert, 2005. "Business cycle synchronization and regional integration: a case study for Central America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3584, The World Bank.
  66. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2009. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2710, CESifo Group Munich.
  67. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
  68. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
  69. S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba, 2009. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(2), pages 287-318, March.
  70. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  71. Iulia Siedschlag & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Regional output growth synchronisation with the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 203-221, May.
  72. Crosby, Mark, 2003. "Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-44, July.
  73. Keith Phillips & Jesus Cañas, 2008. "Regional business cycle integration along the US–Mexico border," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 153-168, March.
  74. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
  75. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2010. "Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, September.
  76. repec:idb:brikps:59478 is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Siem Jan Koopman & Jo�o Valle E Azevedo, 2008. "Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 23-51, 02.
  78. Haan, Jakob de & Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2005. "Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge : a critical survey of empirical research," CCSO Working Papers 200508, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  79. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, 02.
  80. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
  81. Pérez García Francisco & Arribas Fernández Iván & Tortosa-Ausina Emili, 2012. "Trade Integration in the European Union: Relative Contributions of Openness and Interconnectedness," Working Papers 2012112, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
  82. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, 01.
  83. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  84. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  85. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha & Park, Cyn-Young, 2009. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 31, Asian Development Bank.
  86. Rana, Pradumna B., 2007. "Economic integration and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 711-725, October.
  87. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "European Financial Linkages; A New Look At Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 10/295, International Monetary Fund.
  88. Kose, M. Ayhan & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2005. "How might CAFTA change macroeconomic fluctuations in Central America?: Lessons from NAFTA," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 77-104, February.
  89. Mazzenga, Elisabetta & Ravn, Morten O, 2002. "International Business Cycles: The Quantitative Role of Transportation Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  90. Carlos Cortinhas, 2005. "Intra-Industry Trade and Business Cycles in ASEAN," NIPE Working Papers 7/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  91. Torres, Alberto & Vela, Oscar, 2003. "Trade integration and synchronization between the business cycles of Mexico and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-342, December.
  92. Pradumna B. Rana, 2008. "Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case Of East Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(02), pages 279-292.
  93. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  94. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (NUKATANI Sorahiko)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.