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THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa

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  • Grace H.Y. Lee
  • M. Azali

Abstract

The Asian financial crisis in mid-1997 has increased interest in policies to achieve greater regional exchange rate stability in East Asia. It has renewed calls for greater monetary and exchange rate cooperation. A country’s suitability to join a monetary union depends, inter alia, on the trade intensity and the business cycle synchronization with other potential members of the monetary union. However, these two Optimum Currency Area criteria are endogenous. Theoretically, the effect of increased trade integration (after the elimination of exchange fluctuations among the countries in the region) on the business cycle synchronization is ambiguous. Reduction in trade barriers can potentially increase industrial specialization by country and therefore resulting in more asymmetry business cycles from industry-specific shocks. On the other hand, increased trade integration may result in more highly correlated business cycles due to common demand shocks or intra-industry trade. If the second hypothesis is empirically verified, policy makers have little to worry about the region being unsynchronized in their business cycles as the business cycles will become more synchronized after the monetary union is formed. This paper assesses the dynamic relationships between trade, finance, specialization and business cycle synchronization for East Asian economies using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The dynamic panel approach improves on previous efforts to examine the business cycle correlation –trade link using panel procedures, which control for the potential endogeneity of all explanatory variables. Based on the findings on how trade, finance and sectoral specialization have effects on the size of common shocks among countries, potential policies that can help East Asian countries move close toward a regional currency arrangement can be suggested. The empirical results of this study suggest that there exists scope for East Asia to form a monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace H.Y. Lee & M. Azali, 2009. "THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2009-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 351-365, January.
    4. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 186-197.
    5. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2013. "Financial Integration among ASEAN+3 Countries: Evidence from Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 58162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    7. Shahriar Kabir & Ruhul Salim, 2016. "Can A Common Currency Induce Intra-Regional Trade? The Southeast Asian Perspective," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 218-234, November.
    8. Dennis Nchor, 2020. "Labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Europe: evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-33.
    10. Krzysztof Beck & Jakub Janus, 2013. "Aggregate Demand Disturbances in the Visegrad Group and the Eurozone," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 1(3), pages 7-19.
    11. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1358914-135, January.
    12. Shafighi, Najla & Gharleghi, Behrooz, 2016. "Feasibility of a currency union in East Asia using the five-variable structural vector autoregressive model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 45-54.
    13. Ngozi E. Egbuna & Maimuna John-Sowe & Santigie M. Kargbo (PhD) & Sani Bawa (PhD) & Ibrahima Diallo & Isatou Mendy, 2020. "Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Ecowas Region," Working Papers 18, West African Monetary Institute.
    14. Nabil Alimi, 2015. "The Effect of Trade, Specialization and Financial Integration on Business Cycles Synchronization in Some Mediterranean Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 110-118, January.
    15. Wanping Yang & Bingyu Zhao, 2021. "The Transmission Mechanism of China-Japan Economic Co-Movement and Stabilizing Measures for China’s Economy," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    16. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2012. "Is East Asia an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 87-95.
    17. Alam, Ashraful & Uddin, Moshfique & Yazdifar, Hassan, 2019. "Institutional determinants of R&D investment: Evidence from emerging markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 34-44.
    18. Perera, Liyanage Devangi H. & Lee, Grace H.Y., 2013. "Have economic growth and institutional quality contributed to poverty and inequality reduction in Asia?," MPRA Paper 52763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2020. "Dynamic exchange rate dependences: The effect of the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 25-48, December.
    21. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Structural Similarity as a Determinant of Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union: A Robust Analysis," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimum Currency Area; Monetary Union; Trade Integration; Business Cycle Synchronisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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