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Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Inklaar
  • Richard Jong-A-Pin
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

This paper re-examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries during 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialisation, financial integration, and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects business cycle synchronization, but the effect is much smaller than previously reported. Other factors in our model have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity. Finally, we find that the effect of trade on business cycle synchronisation is not driven by outliers and does not suffer from parameter heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1546, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1546
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; trade; synchronization of business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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